The latest Gallup poll on American attitudes shows that by a ratio of 63 – 15, those who have an opinion, favor Israel as opposed to the Palesitnians. The New York Jewish Week opines:
Analysts no doubt will find any number of reasons for the numbers coming out the way they do, but it seems clear that the Palestinian Authority does not instill confidence among Americans, who gave it the lowest approval rate among 20 countries listed.
On the plus side, the poll is a reminder that, despite large doses of paranoia in the Jewish community from time to time, most Americans identify with Israel as a bastion of democracy in a chaotic Middle East.
It should also be noted that for all the criticism of the mainstream press among pro-Israel advocates in this country, most Americans get their news and views about the Mideast from the very same news media so often perceived of as biased against Israel. Somehow a positive message must be getting through.
That last bit is nonsense. There is a cost to the poor media coverage. Nearly one in four Americans have no opinion or favor neither side. If the media were balanced, there’d be many fewer doubters. It’s also important to note that these numbers are somewhat volatile.
For example in 2002, when Israel launched Defensive Shield, the prefer neither/no opinion component of the population was close to the pro-Israel sentiment. Right now with things pretty quiet, Israel’s support is growing. In the past though, during times of crisis poor reporting has diluted American popular support of Israel.
I can’t disagree with the Jewish Week’s conclusion though.
Since these polls have been recorded the ratio of pro-Israel to pro-Palestinian has generally ranged from 3 or 4 to 1. Right now with support for Israel so high, the ratio is now over 4 to 1.
The encouraging survey results do not mean that we should, as a community, ease up on our advocacy for Israel. But we should keep our work in perspective, mindful of and grateful for an American society that appreciates the importance of Israel as a strong and loyal ally in an increasingly dangerous neighborhood.
We are fortunate in that respect.
Barry Rubin explains the implications of Israel’s popularity.
Two fascinating questions arise from this analysis: What does all this matter, since public opinion doesn’t make foreign policy, and why is there such a gap between the most vocal elites and masses on Israel?
The answer to the first question is that it matters to members of Congress who are running for election in November and know that voters don’t want to see them bash Israel or support a president in doing so. Indeed, as President Barack Obama’s popularity has fallen and even the media has become more critical, Congress is reclaiming an independent role on foreign policymaking.
And of course the White House, too, is watching the polls. This is one of the most elections’ conscious, always campaigning presidencies in history—and the standard there is very high—and clearly attacking Israel either isn’t seen as beneficial for its ambitions. This isn’t the only factor affecting its behavior but it is one of them.
As to the second issue, there are many factors but let me try to list them briefly. Those who are unhappy with the status quo—that is, the U.S.-Israel special relationship, are going to be noisier. Another is the concept of “Realism†which is, unfortunately, extraordinarily unrealistic, the idea that all governments think alike, defining interest the same way regardless of all other factors. To assume that type of government, political culture, distinctive history, and ideology plays no rule in Arab politics ensures you don’t understand them. And so much of the Western elite assumes Israel is the only problem preventing Arab rulers and Islamist revolutionaries from loving the West.
Another issue is narrative, with much of the elite believing that the conflict is one of Palestinians and Syria desperately wanting peace but Israel saying no. In the American elite, there is also more of a yearning to be like Europe.
But American public opinion has more common sense to see through these myths. It understands that there are huge differences between democracies and dictatorship. It knows demagoguery and extremist ideology on sight and doesn’t like them. Thus, matters are precisely the opposite of what much of the elite thinks: public opinion, not elite institutions, accurately predicts where policy on these issues will go in future.
To see how Israel polls in the Arab world (and more) see JoshuaPundit.
Crossposted on Yourish.
