I think we need to take a step back and look at this week’s bombing with open eyes. First of all, the major terrorist groups applauded. It was a successful terrorist attack and that is horrible. Second of all, however, none of the major groups claimed it and compared with previous attacks by the major groups, this attack was not highly effective. It was in fact, amateurish, which leads me to a number of conclusions which no one seems to be discussing.
Let’s look at the facts. First of all, this was not a suicide attack. The bomb was not placed on a bus, but was some sort of IED placed alongside the road and detonated by remote or even by timer (a highly cowardly act and one which limited casualties significantly). This is not the traditional M.O. of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, etc…. The bomb killed one person. Some have said that it was as small as a 1-2 kg device, which is relatively tiny. I assume that it must have been packed with the usual shrapnel to inflict the number of injuries that it did.
I think this is a going to turn out to be a copycat and quite possibly a young one at that. I would not at all be surprised if this was a second try with the Gilo bombing recently being a failed attempt #1 and with more attempts planned in the future. We all know that the major terror groups glorify martyrdom. They can find numerous people to march onto a bus and detonate. We also know that they have access to much more substantial amounts of explosives. If you can leave a bag with a 1-2 kg device, you could leave a bag with a 10 kg or 20 kg device. Why such a small bomb? It does not make sense to me that whomever did this was sent to do so by a major terrorist group.
I think that this attacker is likely not a traditional attacker and may even be a lone actor learning the trade, possibly even in their teens or early 20s. This just does not ring of “master plan” or anything approaching that to me. The Itamar attack was much more in line with a traditional attack. That may well have been part of a broader plan. This one is more in line with an amateur radical experimenting.
One dead, fifty injured is terrible, but I think if Hamas or Islamic Jihad was running this operation, you might have 50 dead and 100 injured.
While Israel certainly faces the threat of highly organized terrorism, this may be one case in which the enemy is an individual. The police will have a good idea if this is the case based upon the materials included in the bomb. Hopefully, there is video of the area and the bomber might eventually be identified.
Meanwhile, I think we can expect another attack of more substantial scope as this bomber improves his or her skill unless he or she is caught first. If the same bomber made both bombs (Gilo and Jerusalem) and they detonated on the day that they were finished, it took about two weeks between the bombings which would make the next bombing take place right about the 3rd or 4th of April and two weeks after that is Pesach.
The writeups pointed out that the bomb was packed with ball bearings.