The Israeli Intelligence Estimate is being previewed by Ynet. Some of the more interesting tidbits:
Israel’s strategic position has improved in the last year- but with it also the military capabilities of its enemies: the Qassam threat has worsened- and a potential hudna will only serve Hamas; Syria is waiting to “get even” but is not expected to start a war; Iran is likely to procure a nuclear bomb by 2009 and the American NIE leaves Israel almost completely alone in the campaign to stop the Persian menace. Ynet reveals the highlights of the Israeli Intelligence Estimate
That’s the overall view, but here’s some very interesting data on the Lebanon War:
The second reason for Israel’s improved capacity for deterrence: Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah have analyzed the results of the Lebanon war and agreed that launching a projectile offensive against the Israeli home front will harm them and their interests more than they will harm Israel.
Iran, for example was surprised by Israel’s ability to wipe out Hizbullah’s entire long-range rocket arsenal in less than an hour, long before the organization could launch even a single ‘Zilzal.’ Furthermore – in a development published here for the first time – the Israeli Air Force was able, with the support of ground forces, to destroy all of Hizbullah’s medium-range rocket launchers (220mm and 306mm) after they were used once or twice.
Tehran had, in the past, provided Hizbullah with an array of heavy rockets, to be used against Israel should Iran’s nuclear facilities be struck. The near-total destruction of this launching system in the wake of the “local provocation” which Nasrallah initiated in July 2006, stirred a great anger in Iran as well as a reevaluation of its relations with Hizbullah.
That’s very good news. And the deterrence capability was only strengthened by Israel’s raid on the Syrian Mystery Plant (a.k.a. North Korean nuke factory). Apparently, Hezballah is now allowed out only with Iranian Guard supervision:
In the end Iran, along with Syria, agreed to replenish and expand the rocket array in Lebanon – but Hizbullah would henceforth have to receive explicit permission from Iran before firing a single rocket. Representatives of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Lebanon have now been charged with supervising the execution of these orders.
Tehran, it is believed in Israel, will only grant this permission if they believe it will serve Iran’s strategic interests – highly unlikely in the next year or two.
There’s a but. Go read the whole thing.
Meanwhile, the Syrians have registered the extent of damage Israel sowed in the Shiite Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut and on the Lebanese road system during the war and have come to the conclusion that their national infrastructure would likely suffer irreversible damage should they instigate a war with Israel before obtaining a more reliable anti-aircraft defense system.
However, they’re pissed off, big-time, over the loss of the Mystery Plant. It’s that Arab pride thing. Really. The whole culture needs to go home and grow a little.
The third most serious threat, the report says, is Hamas in Gaza. It is the least critical from a strategic point of view and does not necessarily pose an existential threat. However, the intelligence ranks urged Israel to deal with it as soon as possible as – opposed to the other, hypothetical, threats – it is already wreaking havoc on the lives of Israelis in the south.
The rocket threat from Gaza will only grow next year, the officals say, as terror groups work to improve the range and shelf-life of their arsenal.
Yeah, we’ve been writing about that one for a while now.
It’s good to read some hopeful news for a change. But the next year or two is fraught with potential existential threats for Israel. It would be much better to see some of the dictatorships in the region replaced with democracies. Too bad that won’t happen in my lifetime.