Yourish.com

Ynet says that Condoleeza Rice is coming to Israel tomorrow to say thanks for the raid on Syria. What exactly, one has to wonder, would be so important that the Secretary of State herself would be shaking the pilots’ hands (so to speak)?

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is coming to Israel on Tuesday to “say thank you” for the alleged Israeli air force operation in Syrian territory, Dr Alon Liel, a former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, told Ynetnews.

Addressing the numerous media reports which claim Israeli jets penetrated Syrian territory, Liel said: “I think what we did, if we did it, is work for Americans. Maybe even as an intelligence operation for the Americans, and therefore I think she (Rice) came to say thank you, more so than to discuss Palestinian affairs,” the former top diplomat said.

Northeast Syria, where the jets were said to have flown, according to Damascus, “is not an area that bothered Israel in the past, this is an area that bothers the Americans very much,” Liel added. “We did work for them, as you know they pay a lot so that we work for them. Seemingly they are satisfied. This has helped them to complicate the Syrians and push them deeper into the axis of evil,” he added.

And by the way, here’s why the would-be peacemakers are simply idiots:

Liel made no efforts in disguising his disappointment with the alleged Israeli operation. “Israel has a clear interest in making peace with Syria,” he said, adding that the incident in Syria’s skies has “shut the door to peace in the near future.”

Something very big went down in the Syrian desert. Either a critical test of air defenses were performed, or a possible nuclear bomb making site was destroyed, or, if you believe the [now] least likely scenario, a boatload of weapons headed for Lebanon were destroyed. And a man who has been involved in trying to make peace between Israel and Syria can only see that Israeli actions have “harmed” the peace agreement. Not the Syrian actions of hiding some kind of weapon—possibly even nuclear—in the desert near the Iraqi border. Shyeah. Let’s not blame Syria. Let’s blame Israel. And this is a former member of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, no less.

Regardless of whether or not he’s right about Condi’s trip, Liel is axiomatic of what is wrong with certain factions in Israel right now. I expect that from the Europeans. But not from Israelis.

Update: Crap. I didn’t notice one of the author’s names. it’s the guy who makes crap up about Israel. Grain of salt warning is now in effect.

To review one of my posts from yesterday: Exit thought: Israel’s recent successful launch of a spy satellite may have had a lot to do with catching this.

From the U.K. Times, today:

The target was identified as a northern Syrian facility that purported to be an agricultural research centre on the Euphrates river. Israel had been monitoring it for some time, concerned that it was being used to extract uranium from phosphates.

According to an Israeli air force source, the Israeli satellite Ofek 7, launched in June, was diverted from Iran to Syria. It sent out high-quality images of a northeastern area every 90 minutes, making it easy for air force specialists to spot the facility.

Putting the pieces together, one at a time. According to the Sunday Times, there was, indeed, a ground force involved.

IT was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was under way.

At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.

More facts to put together regarding the mysterious Syrian silence. Besides violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty, they are deeply embarrassed on many levels. First, that their new Iranian partners, who generously supplied the funds for the Russian radar and air defense systems, wasted their money—because Israel successfully bypassed the new systems. Iran’s got to be deeply unhappy about this as well. Boots on the ground means Israel is willing to drop soldiers into enemy territory if need be, and the utter success of the mission proves once again that Russian technology is no match for the West, not even after a few years of non-Soviet Union.

Allah’s sharp eyes caught this days ago, but it’s worth mentioning again:

Also on Wednesday, the Lebanese daily Almustakbal reported that since the alleged IAF foray over Syria last week there have been severe disturbances in Lebanese communications systems and cellular frequencies.

That’s some heavy-duty jamming technology going on. Now Iran is going to know what’s coming if the IAF heads their way—but they won’t be able to do anything about it.

Here’s my exit question: Were American pilots involved? Or is Israel simply sharing all the intel?

Syrian’s been vewy, vewy quiet about the Israeli mission in Syria, except for a bit of bluster about how the great Syrian air force frightened the IAF away (try not to laugh, those of you who know about the 1982 air battle where Syria lost 86 planes to, ah, zero Israeli planes).

But now someone’s pointing out that Syria may have violated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

“Syria is party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and as such, is barred from receiving any aid that may be used in the manufacturing of nuclear weapons,” said Dr. Robbie Sabel, an expert on international law from the Hebrew University, to Ynet this weekend.

If Syria did indeed receive such aid, said Dr. Sabel, “then it is in blatant violation of the treaty. If that is what has transpired, then Syria may be sanctioned to prevent any further development of weapons, as was done with Iraq and as may be done with Iran.”

Of course, it may also be sheer embarrassment that the mighty new weaponry provided by Iran and Russia didn’t work against the IAF. Or maybe it’s both. In any case, sucks to be Syria right now.

The WaPo says the attack on Syria last week was to stop them from building nuclear weapons of some sort.

U.S. sources reported this week that Israel had recently provided the United States with evidence — known by the code name “Orchard” — that North Korea has been cooperating with Syria on a nuclear facility. But many outside nuclear experts have expressed skepticism that Syria, which has mostly focused on chemical and biological weapons, would be conducting nuclear trade with North Korea.

[…] The White House and the State Department generally have declined to either confirm or deny reports of the Syria-North Korea link, but one top official yesterday seemed to fan the flames. Andrew Semmel, acting deputy assistant secretary of state for nuclear nonproliferation policy, told the Associated Press yesterday in Rome that North Koreans were in Syria and that Damascus may have had contacts with “secret suppliers” to obtain nuclear equipment. “There are indicators that they do have something going on there,” he said.

State Department officials declined to comment on Semmel’s remarks.

Meanwhile, a prominent U.S. expert on the Middle East, who has interviewed Israeli participants in a mysterious raid over Syria last week, reported that the attack appears to have been linked to the arrival three days earlier of a ship carrying material from North Korea labeled as cement.

The expert, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid compromising his sources, said the target of the attack appears to have been a northern Syrian facility that was labeled an agricultural research center on the Euphrates River, close to the Turkish border. Israel has kept a close eye on the facility, believing that Syria was using it to extract uranium from phosphates.

The expert said it is not clear what the ship was carrying, but the emerging consensus in Israel was that it delivered nuclear equipment. The ship arrived Sept. 3 in the Syrian port of Tartus; the attack occurred Sept. 6 under such strict operational security that the pilots flying air cover for the attack aircraft did not know details of the mission. The pilots who conducted the attack were briefed only after they were in the air, he said.

One article I read said that they can’t rule out our old pal Chaka Khan, sorry, A. Q. Khan’s “network” involvement. The not good part: The ease with which our enemies are transferring nuclear technology to one another. The good part: Apparently, they’re getting caught.

Exit thought: Israel’s recent successful launch of a spy satellite may have had a lot to do with catching this.

That mysterious sortie into the Syrian territory, ascribed to IAF, continues to bother the news agencies. Today, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz and Ynet in concert with CNN published a new version of the story, with Debka presenting a separate opinion.

What CNN say, with the other three closely following, is:

Israeli aircraft carried out an airstrike inside Syria last week, possibly targeting weapons that were destined for Hezbollah militants, according to sources in the region and in the United States.

What was presented as an incursion at first, slowly but surely becomes a strike.

The Israeli government is very happy with the success of the operation, the sources said.

Which is strange, since the weaponry seem to flow to Lebanon from Iran via Syria on a daily basis, as everyone agrees.

Sources told CNN reporter Christiana Amanpour that weapons have been transferred in this way for the past three or four years uninterruptedly.

What was so special about this specific shipment that warranted a special operation and all that happiness? Sounds fishy. Then, CNN adds another titillating detail (with Israeli papers repeating it, keeping the censorship in mind, obviously):

But the sources told CNN the military operation, which happened Wednesday into Thursday, may have also involved Israeli ground forces who directed the airstrike which “left a big hole in the desert” in Syria.

Hole- shmole, but this ground forces story seems too improbable, at least for what could be called peace time. JP, sticking its head out a bit (where the censor is concerned), presents a map, allegedly created according to the Syrian FM’s reconstruction of the flight:

The distance to be covered by the IAF jets to and from the marked destination would be roughly between 1200 – 1500 km (to and fro totaled), which is quite a trip. And to risk insertion of a ground unit at this distance would require an extraordinarily important shipment of weapons.

All in all, the whole story presented by the “gang of four” sounds too… OK, it sounds like so much crapola. And for once, I must say, I like the Debka version much better.

Western intelligence circles maintain that it is vital for the US and Israel to establish the location and gauge the effectiveness of Pantsyr-S1E air defenses in Syrian and Iranian hands, as well as discovering how many each received. They estimate that at least three or four batteries of the first batch of ten were shipped to Iran to boost its air defense arsenal; another 50 are thought to be on the way, of which Syria will keep 36.

The purported Israeli air force flights over the Pantsyr-S1E site established that the new Russian missiles, activated for the first time in the Middle East, are effective and dangerous but can be disarmed. Western military sources attribute to those Israeli or other air force planes superior electronics for jamming the Russian missile systems, but stress nonetheless that they were extremely lucky to get away unharmed, or at worst, with damage minor enough for a safe return to base.

The courage, daring and operational skills of the air crews must have been exceptional. They would have needed to spend enough time in hostile Syrian air space to execute several passes at varying altitudes under fire in order to test the Pantsyr-S1E responses. Their success demonstrated to Damascus and Tehran that their expensive new Russian anti-air system leaves them vulnerable.

Now, I think, we are closer to the truth. So again, as it has happened quite a few times before, IAF jet jockeys risked to get their arses shot off to get some vital info for the US and Israeli strategy planners and to gather first-hand intelligence about the new Russian gadget.

It also means that not only the IDF brass, but the Pentagon brass as well are happy by the results of the sortie.

Of course, there are some funny sides to the whole story. Take this quote, for instance:

Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem and other Syrian officials have been putting out their version of events. The Syrian government said Israeli bombs were dropped on its territory and fuel tanks from Israeli jets were dropped on the Turkish side of the border.

It should be clear that the Hon. FM would vastly prefer to keep the fuel tanks (used, but maybe repairable) instead of used bombs’ fragments. Turkey won in this case, too bad.

On the other hand, from other quotes Mr al-Moualem sounded very subdued:

European diplomats who met with Moallem on Sunday in Damascus quoted him as saying that Israel’s decision not to comment on the incident was appropriate, given the circumstances. Moallem reportedly told the Europeans that he expected Israel to apologize “through the usual channels.” In Ankara for an official visit, Moallem went on to reveal the details of the alleged strike, which according to him resulted in no casualties or damage to property.

I would dare say, he is quite happy with the results and apparent lack of damage. Good.

What is really strange (besides being funny as usual) is the North Korean excitement. Why have they decided to express themselves at all is no less wondrous than the formula used:

According to the report, the Korean Central News Agency quoted a spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry as saying, “This is a very dangerous provocation little short of wantonly violating the sovereignty of Syria and seriously harassing the regional peace and security.”

What constitutes a wanton violation if penetrating about 500 km into Syria is stopping “little short”, is absolutely unclear, and an NK expert opinion is required.

But anyway, speaking about 500 km, take a look at that JP map. Do you see where the star that stands for Damascus is? Methinks it is quite a lot closer to the Israeli border that that other point. Which should learn Baby Assad a thing or to.

Oh, and the last thing: according to the above mentioned North Koreans, Baby Assad had his 42nd birthday just the other day. Happy birthday, Bashar.

Update: the ink hasn’t dried yet, and JP (as usual, quoting another source, NYT), came out with a new scoop:

One Bush administration official said Israel had recently carried out reconnaissance flights over Syria, taking pictures of possible nuclear installations that Israeli officials believed might have been supplied with material from North Korea. The administration official said Israeli officials believed that North Korea might be unloading some of its nuclear material on Syria.

“The Israelis think North Korea is selling to Iran and Syria what little they have left,” the official said. He said it was unclear whether the Israeli strike had produced any evidence that might validate that belief.

That could explain the NK indignation, but does not explain the bombing and the “big hole in the earth” reported by all. Curiosier and curiosier…

Cross-posted on Sim[lyJews.