Overvaluing the street

Anthony Shadid wrote Attacks Further Split Arab Rulers, People for the Washington Post. In it he concludes:

The disconnect between policy and sentiment has become a feature of Arab politics, especially in recent years, as U.S. influence has dominated a region long contested during the Cold War. But some analysts say the divide today has threatened the very legitimacy of governments that, in public at least, offered support for Palestinian rights as a staple of policy. Egypt once deemed itself at the forefront of that conflict.

“That’s the real story,” said Karim Makdisi, a professor of political studies and public administration at the American University of Beirut.

“This gap, which has always been there, is greater than ever. I think we’re in the middle of something new,” he said. “This polarization — where you have regimes perceived as getting closer to American and Israeli interests at the expense of very clear Arab and Muslim rallying points. They’re acting oddly against their own interests. They’re misreading the pulse of the people, the extent of the anger among most Arabs.”

First of all these are not regimes that are not dependent on the consent of the governed, so to say that taking a policy that disagrees with the sentiments expressed in the “Arab street” is misleading. Arab regimes derive their “legitimacy” such as it is from force or threats of forces, and they will continue to do so. Second of all, given that Arab regimes are not famous for their records on freedom of assembly and freedom of the press, if they are allowing demonstrations and publications against Israel, it is because they approve of the sentiment. In other words, the gulf that Shadid describes, is superficial. But there is a reason that Shadid wrote this article. Go to the op-ed page and there’s David Ignatius writing in For Obama a tough page to turn:

The unyielding response of Hamas was conveyed in a statement from its military wing, quoted in the New York Times: “It would be easier to dry the sea of Gaza than to defeat the resistance and uproot Hamas.” Until the Israeli assault, that would have been a fatuous boast; Hamas was increasingly unpopular in its home base. But the attacks have boosted its popularity, in Gaza and around the Arab world.

Pro-Hamas demonstrators were on the streets last week, from Egypt to Jordan to Lebanon to Turkey. Indeed, the biggest worry among diplomats wasn’t so much stopping the fighting as preventing its spread.

In other words, Ignatius in continuing the Post’s assault on Israel. There’s a need to show that Israel’s actions are counterproductive, Shadid provided the reporting to support Ignatius’s conclusion.

Here’s Barry Rubin:

For years now, anti-Americanism has served as a means of last resort by which failed political systems and movements in the Middle East try to improve their standing. The United States is blamed for much that is bad in the Arab world, and it is used as an excuse for political and social oppression and economic stagnation. By assigning responsibility for their own shortcomings to Washington, Arab leaders distract their subjects’ attention from the internal weaknesses that are their real problems. And thus rather than pushing for greater privatization, equality for women, democracy, civil society, freedom of speech, due process of law, or other similar developments sorely needed in the Arab world, the public focuses instead on hating the United States.

The same applies to hatred of Israel. (I’m pretty certain that Prof. Rubin has written similar paragraphs regarding Arab hatred of Israel, but I haven’t found them yet.) The official Arab media are virulently anti-Israel and most of the public statements of the government encourage hatred of Israel.

The gulf that Shadid describes then is largely superficial and temporary. Promoting the Palestinians cause and demonizing Israel is what Arab regimes do. To make unquestioning support of the Palestinians a requirement for legitimacy – as Shadid does – is to excuse every excess of the Arab regimes and serves to legitimize the hatred of Israel in the Arab world.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

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I'm a government bureaucrat with delusions of literacy.
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