Degraded

The other day Eli Lake reported:

Call it Osama bin Laden’s “October surprise.” In late August, during the weekend between the Democratic and Republican conventions, America’s military and intelligence agencies intercepted a series of messages from Al Qaeda’s leadership to intermediate members of the organization asking local cells to be prepared for imminent instructions.

An official familiar with the new intelligence said the message was picked up in multiple settings, from couriers to encrypted electronic communications to other means. “These are generic orders,” the source said — a distinction from the more specific intelligence about the location, time, and method of an attack. “It was, ‘Be on notice. We may call upon you soon.’ It was sent out on many channels.”

The article also recalls:

In the week before the 2004 American presidential election, Mr. bin Laden recorded a video message to the American people promising repercussions if President Bush were re-elected. In later messages, Al Qaeda’s leader claimed credit for helping elect Mr. Bush in 2004.

If they made that claim that was an admission of failure because Bin Laden threatened to retaliate against all states that voted for Bush. The voters were not cowed.

Last year in Pakistan, Qaeda assassins claimed the life of Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister who returned to her native country in a bid for re-election.

“There is an expectation that Al Qaeda will try to influence the November elections by attempting attacks globally,” a former Bush and Clinton White House counterterrorism official, Roger Cressey, said yesterday.

Mr. Cressey said Al Qaeda lacks the capability to pull off an attack in the continental United States, however. “It would likely be a higher Al Qaeda tempo of attacks against U.S. and allied targets abroad,” he said.

This is interesting. Apparently America’s counterterrorism efforts have been successful.

Q & O has a related poll.

Having to think about it my guess is that Al Qaeda attacks would benefit McCain and that Al Qaeda knows it, so it will refrain from attacking. This noise is just to keep in the news.

The Wonk Room thinks that Al Qaeda wants McCain to win also, because it will help its recruiting efforts.

But as Michael Totten points out:

Bin Laden’s lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahiri explicitly spelled out Al Qaeda’s strategy in Iraq on July 9, 2005. “The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq,” he said. “The second stage: Establish an Islamic authority or amirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of a caliphate—over as much territory as you can to spread its power in Iraq.”

The war against Saddam Hussein in Iraq can plausibly be described as a distraction from the war against Al Qaeda. But the war against Al Qaeda in Iraq cannot possibly be accurately described as a distraction from the war against Al Qaeda.

And make no mistake: Al Qaeda’s manpower and resources have been thoroughly degraded from its disastrous fight with Americans and Iraqis, especially in Anbar Province which was briefly established as Al Qaeda’s “capital” of the so-called “Islamic State in Iraq.”

So maybe having a Republican in office is good for recruiting, but not for the continued success of Al Qaeda.

My guess, as stated above, is that Al Qaeda would rather have President Obama than President McCain, so I don’t expect any major attacks against American interests before the election. Al Qaeda couldn’t make good on its threat against America four years ago. With its organization further degraded, I can’t imagine that they’ll be any more successful this year. Assuming that they even want to try.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.