What a fine Hamas

Back when the news of Israeli negotiations with Hamas were starting to make the news, Col. Jonathan D. Halevi wrote what Hamas was looking for:

The tahdiya agreement for a lull is an important achievement for Hamas. Hamas will gain the recognition it wants as the legitimate ruler of the Gaza Strip. Despite the fact that the Israeli government has defined Hamas-ruled Gaza as a hostile entity, Israel agreed to the continuation of trade with it, and even recognized the hostile entity’s authority to operate the Rafah crossing. Hamas regards that as immensely important and wants to exploit it as a lever to open the door to official relations with Europe, and to have itself removed from the various lists of terrorist organizations.

Another important objective for Hamas is winning the Palestinian presidential election, which will be held when Mahmoud Abbas finishes his term of office in December. Hamas wants to present itself in the contest as a legitimate ruling body worthy of inheriting the presidency. High-ranking Hamas figures have already stated that the organization will not recognize Abbas’ authority as president after December 2008.(5)

As Elder of Ziyon noted, though, Hamas didn’t just have political goals in mind, it also had military objectives too.

Everything that goes into Gaza, either from Egyptian tunnels or from Israel, gets taken by Hamas. Hamas takes everything it needs first and then places the rest on the market, heavily taxing it to ensure that the “international boycott” against that terror organization is meaningless.

Cement is a major item that Hamas covets. As the Shin Bet’s Yuval Diskin testified yesterday, Hamas is using the cement it is receiving to build fortified bunkers and tunnels to transport and store weapons.

This is not just Israeli propaganda. Even last January, when Hamas breached the wall to Egypt, it was reported that Hamas was taking delivery of hundreds of bags of cement to build bunkers and tunnels.

A few days later, Elder of Ziyon noticed the degree to which Hamas had been emboldened by the tahdiya. And earlier this week the threat became somewhat more explicit.

The strength of Hamas reflected in its new brazenness was noticed by others. Noah Pollak noticed that King Abdullah of Jordan is now starting to talk with Hamas.

Abdullah has his finger in the breeze, gauging the exact extent to which lines of communication should be opened with Hamas, to correspond with the group’s improving prospects. King Abdullah understands that the recipients of his phone calls might soon have to be Ismail Haniyah and Khaled Meshal — not Abu Mazen.

So having achieved a number of advantages over these past few weeks a group in Gaza (likely speaking on behalf of Hamas) declared that the truce is almost over;

Gaza’s Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) militant group on Thursday warned Israel that a truce between Israel and Hamas which went into effect on June 19 was in danger of collapse, saying it could end in three weeks.

Abu Mujahed, one of the group’s leaders, told dozens of fighters undergoing military training that Hamas, the PRC and other factions were disappointed at Israel’s slow action on opening Gaza’s border crossings and prisoner release talks.

“(Israel) has until the end of the tenth week (since the declaration of the ceasefire) and if they do not abide by the obligations of calm, politicians will stop talking and military men will act,” Abu Mujahed said.

So Hamas has been using the respite to strengthen its fortifications in Gaza, project its expanded political reach and openly train its forces in anticipation of further conflict with Israel.

In other words, as Col. Halevi predicted, Hamas observed the ceasefire as long as it suited its needs.

Israel’s attempt to boost Abbas’s standing by freeing prisoners is likely to fail miserably, especially after handing Hamas an undisputed victory that cost Hamas nothing.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad