The JPost has an anaylsis of why we’ve seen so many successful attacks on terrorists in Gaza lately. Here’s a hint: Having an actual military man directing military operations seems to be a bit help.
The recent escalation stems from a number of factors, the most significant of which is Israel’s new defense minister, Ehud Barak, who, with only two months on the job, has given the army a longer leash in combating terrorism in the Gaza Strip.
Barak has said in closed-door meetings that he does not believe Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas will succeed in gaining control over the Strip. Barak has also expressed scepticism regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement through the ongoing talks between Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
Unlike his predecessor, Amir Peretz, who was a strong proponent of the policy of restraint vis-Ã -vis the Kassam rocket fire from Gaza, Barak has ordered the IDF to take a tougher stance in responding to the attacks and has allowed the IDF to take greater risks when operating inside the Strip.
Where Peretz would have held back the green light for an air strike that could end in civilian casualties, Barak is more inclined to say yes. He has also ordered the army to use additional and riskier intelligence-collecting methods when preparing for targeted killings and strikes against Kassam rocket squads.
It seems that Barak has unleashed the IDF more than anyone in recent years.
The IDF’s Southern Command is under orders to use all available defensive and offensive measures to prevent the rocket attacks, and has carved out something of a “security zone” two kilometers into Gaza, the depth it has been authorized by Barak and Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi to operate within.
According to military sources, the relatively high number of deaths from IDF strikes this past week is also due to chance and the defense establishment’s newfound ability to quickly “close circles” – military jargon for translating and utilizing real-time intelligence in immediate operations.
I think the word isn’t “chance.” I think it is “opportunity.” The IDF is constantly looking for terrorists, and when you are looking for something, and find it, it isn’t luck. It’s method, surveillance, information-gathering, and more. Perhaps the “chance” part came in on there being no one around the jihadis car, but still—that’s what the IDF waits for before ordering a strike.
Of course, there’s also this bad news:
At the moment, the army is holding back from initiating a large-scale operation into Gaza, despite intelligence indicating that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are smuggling unprecedented amounts of weaponry into Gaza. In the end, however, OC Southern Command Maj.-Gen. Yoav Galant’s assumption is that there will be a need for an operation in the Strip to curb the Hamas military buildup.
There’s going to be a war. The question is, with whom, and how many fronts will there be?
A concentration of rockets and ordnance in Gaza would be relatively easy to target with Israel’s own short range rockets and artillery. The worrisome fronts will be the Lebanon/Syria front and the the long range missile front with Iran.
chsw
I still see images of that fool Peretz looking through the safety capped binoculars, and nodding his head!
Next thing Israel needs to do is hold new elections and get rid of Olmert who is in way over his head.
“I await the coming spring with extreme trepidation. Armies move in the spring.” — Meryl Yourish, 12/06/06
“Coupled with the news that Iran is revving up its activities in Europe, this is going to be a very, very hot summer.” — Meryl Yourish, 5/30/07
People are always making apocalyptic predictions concerning Israel. They never come true.
(By the way, I applaud Barak’s more aggressive actions in the Gaza strip, though at present I’d oppose a full-scale invasion.)
I am reminded of the story of an official of the British Foreign Office who always pooh-poohed rumors of wars. He always thought the apocalyptic war warnings were false, and always predicted they were wrong. When he retired he pointed this out and complacently said that he had been proved wrong only twice in his career, in 1914 and 1939.
War will come on Iran’s timetable, and Meryl overestimated Iran’s desire for a war right now. It will come, and Israel will face enemies on at least three fronts: Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, unless one or more of these enemies is defeated and eliminated from the equation first. And if Israel looks weak and vulnerable, more enemies will join in, possibly including Egypt and Jordan, with renewed eagerness for the kill.
Perhaps Iran will not start the war until they have nukes. In the meantime there will be harassing fire constantly hitting Israel, and constant terrorist attacks, to demoralize and wear down the Israelis.
Iran will wait till they have nukes. There’s no question about that.
The only question is will the United States and the UN ALLOW Iran to get nukes?
I can’t believe we’ve allowed them to get this far, it’s my hope that before Bush leaves office he’ll use his last few weeks to “remove” the Iranians ability to make nuclear material.
Of course this will all be a moot point, a three front war will be no problem for Israel.
I just don’t get the world anymore. A country says, -BLATANTLY- that they want nukes, and they will USE them. Yet we do nothing….
Israel should blanket Gaza with artillery fire until the A-rabs cry ‘Uncle Ahmed’. That is certainly what the Soviets would have done. Amir Peretz should be arrested along with his moronic former boss for stupidity and de facto treason.
Yes, but Joel, that would only contribute to the cycle of violence that besets this war-torn area. The cylce of violence, as you know, is a natural phenomenon and occurs unrelated to any action by, say, Arabs.