An interesting analysis in Ynet:
“Hamas’ intoxication with power” – that’s how sources in the Gaza Strip explain the difficult blows sustained by the organization in recent days at the hands of the Israeli Air Force. On Saturday, five members of Hamas’ special security force were killed in an air force attack on a Gaza post, and sources reported that special force members were abandoning their positions in wake of the attacks.
When Hamas was still a guerilla group with cells operating secretly, Israel was only able to eliminate a few activities here and there through missile strikes and targeted assassinations. Yet following Hamas’ election victory, and after the organization’s special security force was established by former Interior Minister Said Siam, Hamas’ military wing, or at least part of it, became part of the establishment.
[…] Today, the Hamas force threatens any Fatah activist in the Gaza Strip, ranging from the lowliest activist to commanders and officers
in the PA’s official security organizations. Yet this intoxication with power led Hamas to become more established, and this led to the abandonment of guerilla tactics.
Hamas’ security force started setting up above-ground posts, headquarters, training bases, and lodgings – in short, it has become a much easier target for detection by the Israeli Air Force.
And so, instead of a desperate pursuit for cells operating underground, the brawl between the IDF and Hamas is increasingly taking on the qualities of a war between two armies, where Israel enjoys much greater strength than Hamas. In such war, Hamas has no chance.
May it be so.
Some good analysis by Noah Pollak over at Michael Totten’s.
I don’t want to speak for Mr. Totten (whom I respect immensely and find generally very reasonable even when I disagree with him), but it seems like with the Lebanese army taking on Fatah terrorists in the Palestinian refugee camps, his Palestinian sympathy meter is getting down near zero.
I can barely remember when mine was above zero. Of course these days it’s so far in the negative that I’d have to recalibrate to get a reading if I cared.