Is anyone truly surprised that Egypt will not stand by its Gaza agreement with Israel? Really? You may recall that when the Gaza agreements were being ironed out, and Condi Rice forced Israel to give up the Philadelphi corridor and cede control to European monitors (who fled at the first signs of violence from Hamas), Egypt also agreed to keep the terrorists from smuggling in arms and bombs. Yeah, that’s working out so well, Hamas blew up the border wall and imported thousands of rockets (and Iranian trainers) while they were at it. Now, Egypt isn’t even pretending to keep its agreements with Israel anymore. And of course, no one in the media makes so much as a peep when Egypt violates its agreements. Just as the world manages to ignore the fact that the “blockade” on Gaza is also being perpetrated by Egypt.
Egypt will reopen the Rafah crossing to Palestinians even if Cairo’s initiative to mediate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas fails, according to assessments by Israeli defense officials. The Israel Defense Forces, meanwhile, is taking steps to be able to limit mass marches to the fence separating Gaza and Israel.
Although Egypt denies it, evidence is mounting that Cairo and Hamas recently reached an understanding to open the crossing regardless of the outcome of the negotiations.
Israeli officials on Monday told Suleiman during his visit to Israel that Jerusalem would not agree to a cease-fire unless substantial progress is made in negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit, the IDF soldier abducted by Hamas in June 2006.
Defense officials also told Suleiman that Israel would not agree to open the Rafah crossing without such progress, conditioning their consent on Shalit’s release to Egypt. Suleiman expressed reservations about the demand, arguing that a cease-fire would help facilitate the deal for Shalit’s release.
However, Egypt could reopen the crossing without Israel’s consent as part of Cairo’s negotiations with Hamas. If Egypt does that, it would be violating understandings on the crossing it undertook under American pressure in November 2005.
The agreement Egypt signed then put the crossing under European supervision under security requirements demanded by Israel. The crossing has remained all but sealed since Hamas’ seizure of power in the Gaza Strip last June, after which Israel imposed a strict blockade on the enclave.
By the way, the PA also wants the crossings closed.
The Palestinian Authority firmly objects to the prospect of reopening the crossing. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is insisting on the presence of PA security forces at the site.
Of course, Hamas would blow through the PA forces in a flash, like they did to take over Gaza last year, but hey, that’s beside the point. The point here is that in violation of agreements, and against the wishes of everyone but Hamas, a terrorist group, Egypt is going to open the Rafah border crossing—which will allow Hamas to import more weapons, more bombs, more rockets, and more Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Iran is planning for the next war, too. It will be a war on at least three fronts, and all three fronts will have thousands of rockets bombarding Israel. Many people are going to die if this one comes to pass. Pray that it doesn’t. The Iranian proxy army buildup continues, aided and abetted by the lack of will by neighboring countries to stop it—as well as by the rest of the world. Hell, even Tom Friedman has noticed the Iranian threat.
For now, Team America is losing on just about every front. How come? The short answer is that Iran is smart and ruthless, America is dumb and weak, and the Sunni Arab world is feckless and divided.
Of course, he doesn’t advocate that we actually do anything about it.
When you have leverage, talk. When you don’t have leverage, get some — by creating economic, diplomatic or military incentives and pressures that the other side finds too tempting or frightening to ignore. That is where the Bush team has been so incompetent vis-à -vis Iran.
The only weaker party is the Sunni Arab world, which is either so drunk on oil it thinks it can buy its way out of any Iranian challenge or is so divided it can’t make a fist to protect its own interests — or both.
We’re not going to war with Iran, nor should we. But it is sad to see America and its Arab friends so weak they can’t prevent one of the last corners of decency, pluralism and openness in the Arab world from being snuffed out by Iran and Syria.
Yes, that would be the world that is unwilling to go along with sanctions. Friedman is ignoring the fact that effective sanctions keep getting shot down by Europe, Russia, and China, no matter what the Bush Administration proposes. You can’t get leverage if you’re the only kid on the block willing to do something about the local bully, but every other kid refuses to help. I’m not saying the U.S. isn’t helpless. But the world bodies refuse to act in anything other than their own short-term self-interest. Switzerland signs natural gas deals with Iran. China and Russia sign major trade agreements and send arms and weapons technology—including nuclear technology—to aid Iran in getting atomic bombs.
The only thing the world is ever in agreement on is its condemnation of Israel. Or aggressive American actions. So watch for the world to ignore Egypt’s violation of its agreement with Israel, and then scream when Israel tries to do something in response to an attack by a newly-supplied Hamas.
I actually have to debunk Friedman based on his past columns. Now he’s calling Iran “brilliant,” back in 2006 Hezbollah was stupid for initiating a war with Israel.
He claims you need leverage but in the past has been against actually winning against Iran or its proxies; the only way I can think of, of gaining leverage. (He might still think that surrendering the Golan to Syria will help wean Syria away from Iran. Yeah, right.)
Egypt opened its Gaza border? How can that be? Just this morning I was reading on the internet that the million and a half Gazans are imprisoned by Israel, with no way out. Trapped, trapped like rats in a trap by the brutal, oppressive Zionists. And now you tell me that there in fact is a border that can be opened and through which supplies, all the supplies anyone wants, can be moved?
Friedman may want to rephrase that to “The State Dept. is weak and stupid.” The DoD has had some pretty good success against Iranian objectives in Iraq.
Contrary to Friedman the US could do lots to get leverage over Iran, even with the feckless and incompetent CIA and State Department. But Friedman would have conniption fits if we did anthing of the sort. We would need to be much less restrained than we have been for the last seven years.