Michael Oren argues in Israel’s Lebanon Disaster that it’s imperative that PM Olmert resign in the face of the final Winograd Commission report in order to restore the country’s faith in its leadership.

In another country, perhaps, such blunders might result in the resignation of senior officers but not necessarily elected officials. In Israel, though, no one is above blame. Accountability for decision making is a tenet of the Zionist ethos on which the Jewish state is based and, unlike most nations, Israel has a citizens’ army in which the great majority — politicians included — serve. Most uniquely, Israel confronts daily security dangers and long-term threats to its existence. Israelis can neither condone nor afford a prime minister who passes the buck to their army or shirks the onus of defense. The person who sends us into battle cannot escape responsibility for our fate.

Jewish Current Issues (who linked to the Oren article) emphasizes the findings of the first Winograd report.

While the Winograd Commission report is expected to lay out the political and military failures of the war in Lebanon in 2006, don’t expect it to affect PM Olmert much. With his party circling the wagons the political consequences will probably be minimal.

On Tuesday night, bracing for the publication of the report, cabinet ministers from Kadima came to the prime minister’s defense, saying that it would be wrong to call elections with the government acting to further the peace process with the Palestinians. “The state of Israel will pay a high price if it goes to election,” Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-On said at a meeting of Kadima activists in Tiberias. “The prime minister is determined on this score, and no system of pressure will make a difference. For the first time in seven years there is an attempt to create a diplomatic process, [and] the economy is growing.”

The IDF is concerned that a majority of the blame could fall on the military leadership.

The IDF braced itself Tuesday ahead of the scheduled publication Wednesday of the Winograd Committee’s final report on the Second Lebanon War.

Senior officers told The Jerusalem Post that the IDF top brass was preparing for a “worst-case scenario,” in which the military - and not the political echelon - would be blamed for most of the war’s failures.

Probably the biggest mistake was having Amir Peretz as Defense Minister. While it obviously was hard to deny the leader of the second largest faction his choice of portfolio, that was Olmert’s responsibility. With a military ignoramus in control of the army, there was no effective oversight of the military. But Peretz is gone, not because of his incompetence (at least not directly) but because he lost the post as leader of his party.

Contentions.David Hazony observed

The Winograd report has the potential to tip any of these over the edge. The report will probably lay heavy blame on then-IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who failed to prepare the military for war and failed to run the war while it was happening; and on the mustachioed then-Defense Minister Amir Peretz, whose breathtaking ignorance of military affairs raises serious questions about the merits of parliamentary democracy. But the real questions will rise about Olmert, who laid out major objectives for the war, none of which were achieved; and who ran the war as if he were still trading favors at Jerusalem City Hall.

The problem, Hazony alludes to is the nature of Israel’s parliamentary democracy. It could be that all the pressures brought to bear will force Olmert to resign and take his government with him. Still, I don’t detect a lot of interest in getting rid of Olmert. At least not where it counts. The country’s political leadership is very insulated.

Contrary to what Oren wrote, the Left very much wants Olmert in place, because he is committed to the exact same thing they are: the peace process. And for the Israeli Left, the peace process takes precedence over all else; even over democracy and accountability. Also, many Israelis, while they may dislike their leadership, are generally content.

In Ehud Olmert’s Israel, Peter Berkowitz writes:

So ask Israelis about the state of the nation, and they will tell you that things are grim and growing worse. But, observes political strategist Eyal Arad, chairman of the Euro Israel Group and former adviser to Prime Ministers Sharon and Olmert, ask Israelis about their personal prospects and many will tell you they have never had it better. In fact, since recovering in 2003 from the Second Intifada, the Israeli economy is booming, particularly in high-tech industries. The stores are stocked with the latest European fashions and electronic gadgets from around the world. Newer, taller, more glistening buildings distinguish the Tel Aviv skyline. In addition, the health care system boasts excellent facilities, superb physicians, and universal coverage. Literature, music, theater, and filmmaking flourish. Radio and TV feature lively, loud, and nonstop discussion of issues great and small.

And combine that with the fact that PM Olmert’s two most likely opponents, MK’s Ehud Barak and Binyamin Netanyahu, are former Prime Ministers themselves with lots of baggage and the necessary “perfect storm” just doesn’t seem to be there to force the fall of the government.

Last June, PM Olmert showed some remarkable resilience in the face of adversity. He demonstrated his political survival skills then. Barring a criminal indictment, I don’t believe that Olmert will step down or that the necessary pressure will be brought to bear to make that happen.

He’s like the cartoon character happily strolling along oblivious to and untouched by the massive catastrophes occurring around him.

He’s Ehud the Teflon.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

Isn’t it interesting. Hamas has been busy blowing up the wall between Gaza and Egypt, then maintaining crowd control, and now policing the border. And the kassam rockets—over which Hamas insist they have no control—suddenly stopped raining on Sderot for a few days.

Why is that?

The terrorists fired rockets even during the lockdown, though not as many. But suddenly, the rockets have stopped—even though supplies have been brought in from Gaza.

My guess? The terrorists are busy stocking up on new weaponry and bomb-making ingredients. They don’t have time to fire rockets.

In his latest article* Hamas’s Phony Victory professor Barry Rubin of GLORIA Center tells the story of Hamas’ latest failures:

Imagine a very secret meeting held somewhere in the Gaza Strip. Around a table sit various Hamas bigwigs and their leader makes the following speech:

“Ok, here’s the plan. We’ll wage war on our stronger neighbor, Israel, and lose; destroy our economy; make our people suffer; ensure international sanctions continue against us, and alienate almost all Arab regimes. Then, when things can’t seem to get any worse, we’ll turn out all the lights and get international sympathy!”

And he is right on all five counts. And yet…

Hamas indeed seems to be losing its war. The economy, what there was of it before the putsch, is thoroughly destroyed, leaving room for progress only for rocket science, Gazans suffer grievously indeed (a good part of them undeservedly), international sanctions (or at least the official attitude to those) are in place and the last meeting of Arab leaders was largely critical on Hamas.

But while prof. Rubin acknowledges (more or less) the inroads Hamas’ propaganda made in the Western press, he sees this success as unimportant. Unfortunately, I have more than just gut feeling telling me the opposite.

Arafat’s Fatah learned to use the language of images - fake or otherwise - to their advantage, and their Gazan “heirs”, Hamas, do their best to improve on the technique. To use the “easy” example, the poster boy Muhammad Al Durah that was (still is) one of the main exhibits on the totem pole of the Intifada, but many others as well. Of course, the messages were sown in the fertile soil of generally anti-Israeli Muslim world and the Western fellow travelers, but no mistake about their potency.

The images are not addressed to the powers that be (also even the powers are influenced by their undeniable impact). The images are not aimed at a short-range goal. And the images don’t even have to be true.

Hamas learned that the reasoning, the truth and the logic are all unimportant in the long run. They know that the images stay in our memory long after the logic, the reasoning and the truth are forgotten. Images, like nothing else, consolidate the myths, and there is hardly a social entity - well, a nation, that is not based on myths.

In the latest round of images: the insidious candles, the children trying to study in the darkness, the hungry people breaking through the border for food (that they succeeded to empty the Egyptian stores of electronics as well is a lesser matter), the queues for bread - all this has already entered the “treasure” of Palestinian and, indeed, Muslim folklore to stay there for years to come. And eroding whatever there remains of skeptical and realistic outlook.

Hamas is not in a hurry. They know very well that it takes years to sway the public, especially in the West and to make the public to fully accept their version of reality (or unreality, no matter). Even when the public and many of the media outfits seem to lap up their story quite readily. As a reminder - see the review by Soccer Dad.

So, while Hamas is in trouble, the wench is far from being dead. Hamas is kicking, and quite vigorously. To disregard this aspect of its activities would be a folly.

(*) I know that Soccer Dad has already addressed the same article in this post, however…

Cross-posted on SimplyJews.

The UN Security Council won’t be condemning Israel for Gaza anytime soon. Libya lost.

The United Nations Security Council will not discuss the proposal to condemn Israel over the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip by the Jewish state, following an adamant battle held by the Israeli delegation to the UN and backed by the United States.

[...] Senior diplomatic sources in Jerusalem said Tuesday that Libya had withdrawn its condemnation proposal which it has been advancing over the past two weeks, after Israel opposed any negotiations on the wording of such a proposal.

Sources in Livni’s office said that Israel’s insistence, backed by the US, was what caused Libya, the Security Council’s chair this month, to go back on its demand that the discussion be held.

[...] At first the Arab states demanded a one-sided condemnation against Israel on the backdrops of its operations in Gaza. Libya and other Arab countries claimed that the blockade imposed by the Jewish state was causing a severe humanitarian crisis.

The international community, however, responded by demanding that the rocket attacks on Israel be denounced as well.

Foreign Minister Livni instructed the Israeli delegation not to enter negotiation on the resolution’s wording. Despite additional attempts by Libya to hold such talks, the Jewish state refused to compromise and was backed by the US.

Foreign Ministry officials welcomed the Israeli achievement, estimating that this would not prevent a discussion on the matter by the UN General Assembly.

Of course not. Expect a rousing anti-Israel resolution from the General Assembly, with European nations abstaining, as usual.