Will it hold? Hezbullah is already firing at IDF troops, and the AP is already spinning it as if Israel is firing on Hezbullah for no reason.
BINT JBAIL, Lebanon Aug 14, 2006 (AP)â€” Lebanese, Israeli and U.N. officers met on the border Monday to discuss the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the region after a U.N.-imposed cease-fire halted fighting in the monthlong conflict.
Meanwhile, Lebanese civilians defied an Israeli travel ban and streamed back to their homes in war-ravaged areas. Israeli forces fired on two Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon just hours after the guns fell silent, highlighting the tensions that could unravel the peace plan.
But for the first time in a month, no Hezbollah rockets were fired into northern Israel.
The impetus for the war—the kidnapped soldiers—were not part of the agreement. Now Olmert is appointiong an ex-Mossad chief to “oversee the return” of the three missing for a month now.
Hezbullah is claiming victory. And why shouldn’t they? Olmert said no cease-fire without several conditions: The unconditional return of the soldiers, the disarmament of Hezbullah, and the withdrawal of Hezbullah forces from southern Lebanon. None of these aims were achieved.
Seymour Hersh is claiming it was all a Bush plot to invade Iran, with his usual anonymous sources. His credibility has long been shot. Not that this will stop the Israel-haters and conspiracy nuts from saying, “AHA! WE TOLD YOU SO!”
Caroline Glick says Hezbullah won.
There is a good reason that Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah has accepted UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which sets the terms for a cease-fire between his jihad army and the State of Israel.
The resolution represents a near-total victory for Hizbullah and its state sponsors Iran and Syria, and an unprecedented defeat for Israel and its ally the United States. This fact is evident both in the text of the resolution and in the very fact that the US decided to sponsor a cease-fire resolution before Israel had dismantled or seriously degraded Hizbullah’s military capabilities.
While the resolution was not passed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter and so does not have the authority of law, in practice it makes it all but impossible for Israel to defend itself against Hizbullah aggression without being exposed to international condemnation on an unprecedented scale.
I find her to be too pessimistic for my tastes, but there’s no denying she’s telling the truth in much of her article.
This was not a win for Israel, no matter how Michael Oren spins it to Michael Totten. Hezbullah still exists, is still armed, and is still in southern Lebanon. Hezbullah dictated the Lebanese cease-fire terms. And its sponsors, Iran and Syria, are untouched.
My take on things: The cease-fire is a fragile, temporary thing. War will break out again, and soon.