Please remember that I am not an analyst, nor do I play one on TV. I read a lot. And I have an associative way of thinking. My unconscious takes disparate facts that I have read over time, and puts them together into a coherent narrative like some people put together a jigsaw puzzle. And it has just done so with the world reaction to Israel v. Hezbullah. It isn’t just the rightness of the cause. Because the world has stopped Israel from defending herself many, many times in the past. So why stop now?
I think the endgame, and the reason behind the unwillingness of much of the world to stop Israel from pummeling Hezbullah, is this:
What made Hezbollah more than a nuisance was the fact that it was a forward outpost for Iran, which armed and trained its fighters and used them as a strategic threat against Israel.
The huge missile arsenal Tehran sent to Hezbollah – 13,000 missiles, according to Israel – was intended primarily as a deterrent against Israel should it contemplate an airstrike against its nuclear facilities.
Not just Israel: This was Iran’s threat should the world do anything about her nuclear capabilities. And the nuclear issue is coming to a head: The world has to either act to disarm Iran’s nuclear capabilities, or accept the Mad Mullahs having nuclear bombs. The world (a.k.a. the American military) may not be ready to act just yet. But if it does come to attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities—those Hezbullah missiles on Israel’s border will no longer be a problem. So you can forget about this:
To respond heavily to a Hezbollah provocation could bring down a rain of missiles on Israel’s cities. Surprisingly, it was an Israeli leader without a significant military background, Ehud Olmert, who decided to take on Hezbollah and pay the price.
More than 1000 missiles have struck Israel in the past week but the Israeli public overwhelmingly calls on the Government to continue pressing Hezbollah.
Israel has taken the hits, yes—but she has also dealt an incredibly destructive blow to Hezbullah, and by association, Hezbullah’s Iranian sponsors. Their capabilities have been seriously damaged, and are on their way to being utterly destroyed:
We are closer than ever to a new situation on the northern border,” a senior military official told Ynet. “For 10 years Hizbullah has been building capabilities, and in a number of days a considerable part of them has been destroyed. Hizbullah leaders also know that what was won’t be anymore.”
[…] The army officials were careful not to conclude the biggest military operation in the past few years, but said with satisfaction that “Hizbullah is shocked by the amount of information Israel had which led to a huge destruction of its capabilities.”
The end result?
Hezbollah and Iran now find themselves with a deterrent that no longer deters. They also find much of Hezbollah’s infrastructure shattered and many of its leaders, including clerical leaders, killed in the air attacks.
If and when the American military goes after Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the threat from Lebanon is no longer an issue. Iran will have to launch long-range missiles at Israel without its proxy—which will be seen by the entire world as an act of war, and dealt with as such. As for the rest of the Muslim world—they’ve already shown how frightened they are of the Iranian nuclear bomb. The Arab League couldn’t get a consensus against Israel over the current conflict with Hezbullah. In fact, some of their members are openly criticizing Hezbullah, and tacitly criticizing Iran.
The endgame is near, and it’s spelled I-R-A-N.
Like I said: I’m not an analyst with access to any secret information or sources. I only know what I read in the papers. But I find it strange that there have been no serious discussions of UN Security Council resolutions to stop the war. And Condi Rice just reiterated today that it’s not time to talk cease-fire yet.
That isn’t what happens when Israel goes into the territories after Hamas or PIJ. It’s not the rightness of the cause this time. Hezbullah has kidnapped and murdered soldiers before. The world yawned, and even actively aided the kidnapping.
This time, the world is using Israel as the first salvo in the assault on Iran. I assume there’s a quid pro quo to be had down the line. Let’s wait and see what happens.