Egypt could be expected to aid flotillas into Gaza and to make it much easier for arms shipments and other deliveries to enter Gaza. Israel would then likely need to retake the Gaza border with Egypt and/or would need to place more troops on that border than ever before. Israel would additionally need to dramatically increase its military strength all along the Egyptian border because Egyptian troops would not be trusted to prevent incursion by militants, even if they could be trusted not to participate or directly aid in the incursions. Obviously, all previous agreements between Israel and Egypt would be in question either officially or unofficially.

The Palestinian Authority faces the possibility that its greatest supporter, Egypt, would suddenly become a supporter of its arch enemy, Hamas. The PA has been holding “We love Mubarak” rallies throughout the West Bank. Suddenly the PA’s best ally will be Israel. *I guess that I shouldn’t say this publicly because the PA would then be accused of being traitors to the Arab cause. Israel must be a hated enemy and the cause of all evil.

Jordan would have its best allies (Egypt and America) fomenting rebellion within its borders. It is almost a certainty that Jordan’s rhetoric regarding Israel in the months ahead will be much more hostile than it has previously been. This will be so as to avoid being accused of being a friend of Israel. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority’s leadership all have applied for and received Jordanian citizenship. This, just in case Jordan turns into a Palestinian state after all.

Saudi Arabia would face a highly hostile Egypt battling for hegemony in the region that will attempt to foment Islamist rebellion in the kingdom at every turn. Worse, for the King and his family, is the clear indication that the United States would abandon its close ally at the drop of a hat in favor of a hostile democratic rebellion within its borders.

So, looking at what is actually happening in Egypt, is it any wonder that the Saudis have told the Obama Administration where to place its proverbial oil rig? Is it any wonder that the Saudis have come to the aid of Mubarak, threatening to replace any aid that America would deny, and likely will or are coming to the aid of the leaders in Jordan and Yemen as well? Is it any wonder that America is no longer seen as a friend and supporter, but now as a potential threat for emboldening revolt? It is indeed a wonder that among Egypt’s best friends, among the Palestinian Authority’s best friends, among the Saudi’s best friends, is Israel!

We now look at a Middle East in which the peoples and nations that were/are at war with Israel find common cause with it against Iran, against Political Islam, and against America’s foment of insurrection.

It is indeed a strange new world.

The American team is said to be frustrated and upset at Netanyahu’s dismissal to date of the package, which was drafted by the NSC’s Dennis Ross in close consultation with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molho.

“They’re really upset,” one Washington Middle East hand in close contact with administration officials said Tuesday. “At the end of the day, they made this incredibly good faith effort to keep Bibi at the table.” And Bibi proved as yet unwilling to budge.

“’We put our asses on the line,’” the sense of dismay among the U.S. Middle East team at Netanyahu’s rejection of the U.S. package was described. “’We worked with your defense minister and gave you this amazing deal, all the cover you needed to extend the freeze. And you not only rejected it, but put forward a counterproposal [demanding Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state] pandering to the right and a stalling tactic.’”

Add to that the complaint of administration water carrier and thumb sucker, Thomas Friedman, that Israel’s acting like a spoiled child.

Aside from the fact that the “counterproposal” should be a premise of any peacemaking, what’s troubling is that there is no other country that seemingly gets singled out with kind of leak or synchronized cajoling.

Last year President Obama asked King Abdullah to offer a confidence building measure to Israel. Abdullah refused. There was no orchestrated outrage parcelled out to reporters and pundits to show the adminstration’s dissatisfactoin with the Saudis.

Now we learn that the administration has decided to reward the Saudi stubbrorness.

Defense industry analysts said the weapons sale is key to U.S. efforts to boost support among Arab allies and counter any threats from Iran. The deal is also seen as a boon for U.S. defense companies as the Pentagon tightens its budget in ways that could curb contracting opportunities.

Boeing makes the F-15, the Apaches, the Little Birds and some of the other equipment. Raytheon makes some of the anti-radar missiles.

“There’s an enormous amount at stake in terms of U.S. foreign policy, credibility in the region, and the health of the aerospace industry,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace industry analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax. “When you sell combat aircraft you’re also selling a strategic relationship. It is a symbolic commitment to consult on common defense issues, and when you operate the same equipment, that often means joint training and an ongoing military relationship.”

The sale is framed as a good thing (“to counter threats from Iran) and little oppostion is mentioned. (That comes from Rep Weiner.)

If Israel were treated to some sort of positive attention from the administration but was deemed to be obstinate, the critics from within and without the administration would be quoted all over the article. Support for those ungrateful Israelis is uesless, it could only the result of that outsized Jewish influence on politics. But the uncooperative Saudis get a huge weapons package and the hypreventilators are silent. Again, which lobby distorts America’s interests?

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

Broaching a sensitive subject, President Obama assured the visiting king of Saudi Arabia on Tuesday that he remains committed to closing the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, a continuing source of friction between their governments.
…
Fewer than 20 Saudis remain at Guantanamo Bay, but the prison is a symbol of George W. Bush-era detention policies and is unpopular in the Arab world.
…
With the Middle East peace process at an impasse, officials did not report breaking any new ground ahead of a meeting next Tuesday between Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Israeli moves over the last year and a half, including the building of settlements, have been a source of unhappiness for Saudi and other Arab leaders.

Why does it seem like an American newspaper is acting in the place of Saudi Arabia’s public affairs office?

Why should it be important for Washington Post readers to know what’s important to Saudi Arabia?

Americans have a negative view of Saudi Arabia (58% unfavorable; 35% favorable), so Kornblut is providing a valuable service to the monarchy.

She also quotes a former Washington Post Middle East bureau chief, Thomas Lippman, who she classifies as an expert on Saudi Arabia. He is more than that. He is an expert quoted extensively at the Saudi-US relations website, meaning that he’s a Saudi approved expert on the kingdom, hardly someone who is disinterested. (An AIPAC expert would be described as working at the “pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC,” Lippman gets a pass here.)

And then there’s this:

A year after a reportedly rocky first meeting in Riyadh, Obama and King Abdullah held a brief, joint appearance before reporters in the Oval Office following lunch.

This has a quality of “Other than *that* Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” “[R]eportedly rocky?” In the run up to his famous Cairo speech to reach out to the Arab world, President Obama asked that the Arab world consider making a gesture to Israel. The response was, “no.”:

On his Middle East tour, Mr. Obama is expected to press the Arab nations to offer a gesture to the Israelis to entice them to accelerate the peace process.

But in his meetings with the Saudi king, he should be prepared for a polite but firm refusal, Saudi officials and political experts say. The Arab countries, they say, believe they have already made their best offer and that it is now up to Israel to make a gesture, perhaps by dismantling settlements in the West Bank or committing to a two-state solution.

“What do you expect the Arabs to give without getting anything in advance, if Israel is still hesitating to accept the idea of two states in itself?” said Mohammad Abdullah al-Zulfa, a historian and member of the Saudi Shura Council, which serves as an advisory panel in place of a parliament.

While not dismissing the possibility of some movement on the peace process, the Saudis say the Arab world made substantial concessions in the Arab Peace Initiative, which was endorsed by a 22-nation coalition during an Arab League summit in Beirut, Lebanon, in 2002. That proposal offered full recognition of Israel in exchange for Israel’s withdrawing to its 1967 borders and agreeing to a “just settlement” to the issue of the Palestinian refugees.

The Saudis are concerned about the potential threat to the coalition should one nation make further concessions on its own. That, they say, could provide the less committed countries a rationale for abandoning the peace initiative, according to officials and regional analysts.

“Rocky” then means that the Saudi king rebuffed the President’s ambitious initiative. Maybe “disastrous” would have been a better modifier.

Finally, left out of the article was King Abdullah’s warm up act:

The Saudi monarch, who met Tuesday Barack Obama in the White House, did not mince his words the recent trip by the French Minister of Defense Hervé Morin to Jeddah. “There are two countries in the world who do not deserve to exist: Iran and Israel,” said King Abdullah, on June 5.

This diatribe against the two designated enemies of Arabia has been confirmed by two French sources, diplomatic and military, in Paris. It is unclear what the reaction of the Minister of Defence was, – he was surrounded by a handful of diplomats and high-ranking officers in the audience with the king, culminating a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

In the early 1980′s investigative reporter Steven Emerson was looking into undue influence of foreign governments on American policy. The resulting book, The American House of Saud documented how Saudi wealth bought connections and influence in Washington. Unfortunately that influence is on display not just in the corporate and diplomatic spheres, but in academia and pretty clearly in journalism too.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

Yemeni child bride bleeds to death four days after wedding night: Need I say more? Fine. It’s a despicable, despicable thing to marry off children. The article says more than 25% of Yemeni females marry before age 15. It doesn’t say how many die after their wedding night. Now there’s a great religious tradition. And oh yeah—a group of clerics said people who think girls are getting married too young are apostates. So this custom won’t be changing anytime soon.

I guess he should have seen this coming: A Lebanese “psychic” is on death row in Saudi Arabia for practicing witchcraft. Wow, what a great, modern country that is: You can be beheaded for practicing witchcraft, even though there is no such thing as witchcraft. Say, Maureen Dowd, can you write another column on how great and modern Saudi Arabia is compared to Israel?

The resolution endorsed the recommendations in the Goldstone report, and recommended that the UN General Assembly “consider” the report in its current session (which lasts until late December, or eventually until next September). It also said that the Israeli restrictions on Gaza — which the HRC resolution says is occupied — is a “siege” that “constitutes collective punishment of Palestinian civilians”.

How then should the UNHRC respond to this?

Saudi Arabia on Tuesday imposed a naval blockade on the Red Sea coast of northern Yemen to combat Shiite rebels along its border, an adviser to the government said, in the latest escalation of fighting in the southern Arabian Peninsula.

An interesting observation follows:

The Saudi offensive has raised concerns of a proxy war in the Middle East between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally. Shiite Iran is thought to favor the rebels in Yemen, while Saudi Arabia, which is Sunni, is Iran’s fiercest regional rival.

The concerns are about a “proxy war,” and not about the siege that is impoverishing Yemen? Taken together with the Saudi “apartheid wall” on the border with Yemen and Saudi occupation of the Yemeni territories of Najran, Asir and Jizhan, we need a commission to declare Saudi Arabia in violation of international law with all the requisite resolutions and condemnations.

I really don’t care if Saudi Arabia is fighting an Iranian backed terror organization, the UN has an obligation to act according the standards it just established with the Goldstone report! This is collective punishment and must be treated as such! This is a Saudi Cast Lead.

(Not that Yemen deserves much sympathy as it is chasing its remaining Jews away.)

Crossposted on Yourish.

Am Yisrael Chai: The Jewish people live. That’s what the Benjamin Netanyahu said in Wannsee yesterday. That’s the place where the Nazis planned the destruction of the world’s Jews.

Ew! Jew cooties! Hamas is denying having participated in European workshops with Israelis. Because, you know, Jew cooties.

Note to self: No more putting purse on the back of chairs in restaurants. Ben Bernanke’s wife’s purse was stolen from the back of her chair at a Starbuck’s, begging the question: Didn’t she feel the thief take it? The media’s making this out to be a major ID theft case, but the details being given out make it seem like, uh, the thief stole her checkbook and tried to cash a check. Unless there’s more to the story, it’s typical media overhype.

Um, what’s the point of an Israeli suing a Swedish paper in a New York court? An Israeli lawyer (not one of the brighter ones if you ask me) is suing the Aftonbladet for libel in a New York court. Why not in Sweden? Am I the only one that thinks this is moronic?

Appealing to a powerful Saudi prince, an 8-year-old girl asked why she was not allowed to play sports in school like boys. She got an unexpected response: The prince said he hoped government schools for girls would allow playing fields.

And how cool is this? The AP is taking this mealy-mouthed, patronizing anti-feminist pap and pushing it like it’s the equivalent of America’s Title IX.

The stand taken by Prince Khaled al-Faisal, governor of the holy city of Mecca and one of the most senior second-generation members of the royal family, on the controversial issue is the strongest official endorsement so far of women’s sports and a sign the government may be tilting toward opening up on that front.

And exactly why is it such obvious bullshit? Because in the next breath, the AP reports this:

Physical education classes are banned in state-run girls schools in conservative Saudi Arabia. Saudi female athletes are not allowed to participate in the Olympics. Women’s games and marathons have been canceled when the powerful clergy get wind of them. And some clerics even argue that running and jumping can damage a woman’s hymen and ruin her chances of getting married.

“Conservative”? Ronald Reagan was a conservative. A better description of Saudi Arabia would be “feudal.” Except I’m pretty sure that women had more rights in feudal Europe than they have in modern Saudi Arabia. And lest you think that the prince was suggesting any form of equality for women, think again:

According to local newspapers, the 8-year-old girl told Khaled: “I ask myself why is it that only boys can play sports and have courts while we girls don’t have anything?”

“I hope to see sports courts for girls inside girls’ schools,” the prince responded, according to Al-Hayat newspaper.

He said if this were to happen, it will be in coordination with the Education Ministry and “according to certain mechanisms that take into consideration women’s privacy in this country.”

Yes, the fabled privacy excuse. Because given half the chance, women in Muslim lands won’t throw off the shackles of repression and try to live normal lives. Oh, wait. Yes, they will (cf: Afghanistan, Iraq).

But when you live with medieval freaks like these, well, your choices are limited:

A statement issued by three senior clerics last month lashed out at Saudis who demand the opening of more gyms for women, saying such a move would “open the doors wide for spreading decadence.”

“It is well-known that only women with no shame will go to these clubs,” said the statement signed by clerics Abdul-Rahman al-Barrack, Abdul-Aziz al-Rajihi and Abdullah bin Jibrin.

In a recent column in Al-Watan newspaper, Sheik Abdullah al-Mani, an adviser at the royal court, said virgins should think twice before engaging in sports.

“Soccer or basketball require running and jumping and these could damage (a woman’s) the hymen,” he wrote. “If she marries, her husband will … think that her hymen was destroyed as a result of an (immoral) action.”

“He will either divorce her or lose confidence in her chastity,” he added.

But sure, let’s respect their culture and traditions. Because practices like these simply cry out for respect.

Shyeah.

Ed Lasky provides more background.

Now the Obama Mideast Monitor is reporting that the appointment is not final.

Did they look into his sources of income and that of his Middle East Policy Council (formerly the Arab American Affairs Council, founded by Richard H. Curtiss, who also founded the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs), activities of which are funded directly by Saudi Arabia?

(For an idea of what the MEPC is like, here’s a list of its resident experts. Needless to say, one of those experts, Helena Cobban is ecstatic.)

But the funding of Freeman’s work by Saudi Arabia should come as no surprise. The Saudis know how to take care of their friends.

The number of ex-U.S. ambassadors to Riyadh who now push a pro-Saudi line is startling Walter L. Cutler runs the Meridian International Center, which has been heavily supported by the Saudis. Richard Murphy wields influence as a pro-Saudi voice at the Council on Foreign Relations The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an influential and independent, nonpartisan foreign policy membership organization founded in 1921 and based at 58 East 68th Street (corner Park Avenue) in New York City, with an additional office in Washington, D.C.
Chas W. Freeman Jr. now runs the robustly pro-Arab Middle East Policy Council, and heads a firm that sets up joint international business ventures. And lower-level diplomats with Riyadh experience on their resumes can be found throughout U.S. foreign-policy circles.

(The principled Hume Horan was an apparent exception.)

And Freeman isn’t exactly shy about his Saudi paymasters.

Freeman: About a year and a half ago the board of MEPC took a hard look at the future. We concluded that we probably couldn’t continue our work and we couldn’t survive on the basis of a continuing flow of small and medium size donations. The only way we could ensure our survival and the continuation of our work over the long run was through the establishment of an endowment.

Thanks to the generosity of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia we have managed to accumulate an endowment that would be sufficient to allow us to close down in an orderly fashion over the course of a year if we had to do that. By close down, I mean to try to find a home for the three programs that we conduct — the forums, the journal and the teacher training program.

So we are very much now focused on trying to build an endowment to ensure complete continuity of our programs through all time. We probably require $12-$15 million and we are trying very hard to find donors who are willing to contribute to that.

(According to the interview, this Saudi funded organization trains high school teachers for American schools.)

Ambassador Freeman, as could be expected of someone sympathetic to Saudi Arabia is anti-Israel as this 2000 op-ed in the New York Times demonstrates.

At least since Freeman’s term in Saudi Arabia ended he has been well financed by them. Now he may well be appointed to a position of influence in the administration. Is the Saudi investment about to pay off big time?

Exit question: Will any of Israel’s critics suggest that Freeman is more loyal to Saudi Arabia than to the United States?

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

It remained unclear what impact the conflict had had on Hamas’s popularity in Gaza. Israeli officials said Hamas had been harmed politically. Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz suggested that Hamas was rapidly losing its public support given the extensive damage. “In addition to the diplomatic isolation, I think Gazans understand today that it is Hamas that led them to this reality,” he said during a tour of southern Israel.

But Palestinians here showed little evidence of that attitude.

“I think Hamas is stronger now and will be stronger in the future because of this war,” said Eyad el-Sarraj, a psychiatrist here who is an opponent of Hamas. “This war has deepened the people’s feeling that it is impossible to have peace with Israel, a country that promotes death and destruction.”

From the Jerusalem Post’s Analysis: Trumpets of victory strike false note:

Listening to the commanders of Hamas’s armed wing, Izzadin Kassam, who held a press conference in Gaza City on Monday, one is left with the impression that it was the Israelis, and not the Palestinians, who suffered thousands of casualties and lost nearly half of their weapons during the war.

Hamas’s claim that the movement lost only 48 of its gunmen and that the IAF had used half of its ammunition in air strikes on the Gaza Strip is not being taken seriously by many Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

(I will admit that this article suggests Hamas a relatively small portion of its fighters. Yesterday I argued that Hamas likely lost a significant portion of its most effective fighters. Still I don’t think the reason they didn’t fight was tactical, I believe it was cowardice.)

The Times also reports:

King Abdullah exhorted Arab nations to overcome their divisions and urged Israel to embrace an Arab peace plan put forward in 2002 or risk its being withdrawn. He said the peace plan, offering Israel broad Arab recognition in return for significant territorial and political concessions on the Palestinian issue, was “still on the table” but would not always be.

I have no idea why this is even reported. The Saudi peace plan is an ultimatum, demanding a lot and promising nothing concrete in return. Meryl summarizes it nicely:

By the way, the link above, under “Refuse to make any compromise”? It’s from over a year ago. The Saudis have not budged an inch on their insistence that Israel accept their plan, or never have peace. Sound familiar? It should. That’s the Arab way of dealing with Israel. “We lost, so you have to do what we say.”

Crossposted on Yourish.