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10/20/2008

Inviting a crisis

Filed under: Iran — Tags: — Soccerdad @ 5:45 pm

Michael Kinsley said that a gaffe is when a politician speaks the truth. If that’s so, I suppose Sen. Biden’s recent statement about there being an international crisis withing six months of Sen. Obama’s election as president would qualify as one.

“Mark my words,” the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”

“I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate,” Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. “And he’s gonna need help. And the kind of help he’s gonna need is, he’s gonna need you – not financially to help him – we’re gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent initially, it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right.”

(h/t LGF)

Of course, Biden has to show that this will be because some countries will want to test the new president’s mettle. He doesn’t suggest that the Sen. Obama’s may invite this crisis.

However, Elder of Ziyon recently observed that Iran welcomed Sen. Obama’s initiative to talk with them with no preconditions, if only he would apologize to Iran and come begging.

The frontrunner for President of the United States looks as if he is begging to negotiate with Iran, and Iran appears to be considering granting that wish if only the lowly US works a little harder at its begging.

As Barry Rubin shows, though, Sen Obama’s statement (and the belief so prevalent in the media and in “sophisticated” foreign policy circles) that reaching out to Iran can only bring good, is not just naive, it is historically ignorant.

“I have been involved in the search for the elusive Iranian moderate for 30 years.” Then Gates revealed what was actually said at Brzezinski’s meeting, in which he participated, summarizing Brzezinski’s position as follows:

“We will accept your revolution….We will recognize your government. We will sell you all the weapons that we had contracted to sell the Shah….We can work together in the future.”

The Iranians demanded the United States turn over to them the fugitive Shah, who they would have executed. Brzezinski refused. Three days later Iran seized the embassy and forever changed the Middle East. The road thus paved led to the Iran-Iraq and Iraq-Kuwait wars, the power of Hamas and Hizballah, September 11, 2001, and a great deal more. Many thousands would die due to American timidity and Iranian aggressiveness.

Had the United States been a mean bully in its treatment of the new Islamist Iran? The On the contrary, Washington did everything possible to negotiate, conciliate, and build confidence. We’ll do almost anything you want, Carter and Brzezinski offered, just be our friend. Far from being appeased Iran demanded such a total humiliation–turning over the fatally ill, deposed Shah for execution–even that administration couldn’t accept it.

Biden’s statement is a refreshing reminder of the dangers that await the United States should his ticket win the election. Biden, though, probably didn’t think he was admitting as much.

Crossposted at Soccer Dad.

09/08/2008

Obama, Biden and Israel

Filed under: Israel, Politics — Tags: , — Soccerdad @ 12:00 pm

Daled Amos concludes why he doesn’t trust Sen. Biden on Israel:

Against this background of saying one thing but doing another–while I appreciate what Biden says about Israel, I am concerned that once he is in a different position, one where he will have input on policy and no longer need to score points with his constituency by associating himself with particular Senate bills, Biden will show a different agenda. Under those circumstances, I just don’t trust Biden to keep his promises to Israel.

And indeed a recent statement of his:

It is quite a swipe at the organized Jewish community that the Jerusalem Post is reporting Senator Biden has launched against the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. “I take a backseat to no one — including Aipac — when it comes to supporting Israel,” the Post quotes the Delaware Democrat just chosen as Senator Obama’s running mate as saying. “They don’t speak for the entire Jewish community. There are other organizations that are just as strong and consequential,” he said.
“Aipac does not speak for the State of Israel.”

… raised questions at the NY Sun:

Well, it is true that Aipac does not speak for the state of Israel; it is not a foreign agent. But Aipac is the formal voice of the pro-Israel lobby in America, and through its governance structure, represents the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations that is the umbrella group for the Jewish community in this country. Aipac has not publicly criticized Mr. Biden, though it did take different stances than he did on some Iran-related legislation. Aipac has described Mr. Biden as pro-Israel, a description whose accuracy we do not dispute.

If Mr. Biden, though, really thinks there are other American Jewish organizations that are as strong or as consequential as Aipac when it comes to the America-Israel relationship it sure will be illuminating to see him name them. If he has in mind dovish groups such as the Israel Policy Forum or the J Street Project, Mr. Biden is only going to hurt the Obama ticket with that portion of the Jewish vote that is actually up for grabs in this election.

Jennifer Rubin characterizes Biden’s statement as

It is further evidence of poor temperament, something that no amount of study can solve. Putting aside the merits of his dispute with AIPAC, the tone and the fact that he is in a public spat with a key representative group from a key constituency says something about his fitness for high office. His mouth and penchant for verbosity are only part of the Biden problem. He is incapable of behaving with restraint, modesty and discretion — the very qualities you expect in a leader in high office.

But I think Rubin and the Sun are missing something here. I don’t believe that Biden’s statement is out of line with Sen. Obama’s views at all or reflective of a problem with his tempermant. Keep in mind that Sen. Obama said:

“I think there is a strain within the pro-Israel community that says unless you adopt a unwavering pro-Likud approach to Israel that you’re anti-Israel and that can’t be the measure of our friendship with Israel,” the Illinois senator and contender for the Democratic presidential nominee told a group of Jewish leaders in Cleveland on Sunday. “If we cannot have an honest dialogue about how do we achieve these goals, then we’re not going to make progress.”

Substitute AIPAC for Likud and the statements sound very similar. And indeed there’s a school of thought on the Middle East that AIPAC is representative of the Likud. (It’s actually, usually representative of whatever party is in power in Israel.)

Or consider that J-Street an organization that would seem to be in line with Biden’s statement, J-Street is funded by Alan Solomont, one of Sen. Obama’s main fundraisers.

Or consider that the group of Republicans for Obama have a record of being anti-Israel.

This morning, former Iowa Republican Congressman Jim Leach, former Rhode Island Republican Senator Lincoln Chaffee, and prominent lawyer and former White House intelligence advisor Rita E. Hauser will host a conference call to endorse Senator Barack Obama and announce the formation of Republicans for Obama.

The theme continues: these Republicans — with the exception of Jim Leach — also are very cool towards the American-Israel relationship.

I don’t think that Sen. Biden’s remarks about AIPAC can be construed as anything other than a sign that a President Obama, would take a more adversarial approach to Israel than the previous two administrations.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

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