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Here’s what I think is going to happen: The same thing that happened several years ago, when young people across Iran protested, well, the exact same leader of their nation.

The students are going to lose.

Of course, I would absolutely love to be eating these words a few days from now. But you don’t keep a totalitarian regime going without being able to brutally, ruthlessly crack down on dissent. And the reporting of dissent.

There’s very little coming out of the White House about this. Unless you call this statement on Saturday something other than pure crap:

Like the rest of the world, we were impressed by the vigorous debate and enthusiasm that this election generated, particularly among young Iranians. We continue to monitor the entire situation closely, including reports of irregularities.

The Mullahs will win. Sadly.

Or so the Iranian state news agency says.

Iran’s state news agency reported that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won re-election Friday, but his main reformist challenger also confidently claimed victory at a news conference moments earlier.

The rival claims came even before the close of polls, which authorities permitted to stay open an extra six hours, until midnight, to allow long lines of voters to cast ballots. Official results were not expected until Saturday.

The fix, she is in. Don’t expect the “reformist” candidate to take away the win. In a close race, the man the Mad Mullahs want gets the job.

I’m wondering how much this so-called competition was staged. Aside from the maneuvering for power between one mullah and another, there’s no real difference between the candidates. All of them were thoroughly vetted by the mullahs. No one gets to run that Khameini didn’t approve. So maybe he wanted Mad Mahmoud to sweat a little.

I was reading something somewhere by someone saying that this would lead to a president-for-life thing with Ahmadinejad. Here’s a clue for that person: Iran is ruled by someone whose title is Supreme Leader, and who doesn’t run for re-election once he’s fought his way to that position. Anyone who calls Iran any kind of democracy is a dreamer or a liar. When every candidate is vetted by the mullahs, there is no true democracy. Here in America, all you need is the requisite number of signatures on the petition, the right age and residency requirements, and you can run for anything. No one can disapprove your candidacy. That is democracy. Not Iran.

I want Ahmadinejad to win today.

Yes, really. Because his replacement will be worse.

Why worse? Because he pretends that he doesn’t have the same goals as Ahmadinejad. Because the world media will call him a “moderate.” Because he will have the veneer of civility when underneath, he is just another tool of the Mad Mullahs, chosen by the Mad Mullahs, to move forward the Mad Mullah agenda—which is Iranian domination of their region, and ultimately the world, as part of the fabled Caliphate that will control the world when we are all submissive to only their god.

Note the AP label for the “reformist” who actually started Iran’s illegal nuclear program:

Iranians packed polling stations from boutique-lined streets in north Tehran to conservative bastions to choose Friday between keeping hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power or replacing him with a reformist who favors greater freedoms and improved ties with the United States.

And notice that even as the AP says there will be no great change, they push the reformist angle:

The outcome will not sharply alter Iran’s main policies or sway high-level decisions – such as possible talks with Washington. Those crucial policies are all directly controlled by the ruling clerics headed by the unelected Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

But Mousavi has offered hopes of more freedoms at home. If elected, he could try to end crackdowns on liberal media and bloggers and push for Iran to embrace President Barack Obama’s offer of dialogue after a nearly 30-year diplomatic freeze. He favors talks with world powers over Iran’s nuclear program, which the United States and others fear is aimed at making weapons. Iran says it only seeks reactors for electricity.

Of course he favors talks with world powers. Talks have achieved what the Iranians want: Time to complete nuclear enrichment, pretend actions towards stopping the nuclear march, all the while enlarging the program and getting enough material for a nuclear weapon. And in spite of what you read in the papers, the Iranian presidency is a puppet presidency. He does what the Supreme Leader commands him to do. And “reformists”—well, they don’t really matter.

For all the reforms made during the Khatami era, real power in Iran never left the hands of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The supreme leader’s conservative allies retained control over the security forces, as well as the judiciary and the media, and simply circumvented the rule of law when their stranglehold on the country was challenged.

The author of the above was one of the founders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. That didn’t stop them from torturing him when he got on the Mullahs’ bad side. And this is why.

On June 4, Iran will mark the twentieth anniversary of Ali Khamenei’s appointment as the leader of Iran. While international attention is focused on the June 12 presidential elections, the winner of that contest will remain subordinate to Khamenei in power and importance, despite the latter’s low profile. Lacking the charisma and religious credentials of his predecessor, Khamenei has managed to attain his powerful position by taking control of key government agencies and building a robust bureaucracy under his direction. Understanding Khamenei’s role in Iran’s complicated governmental system and how he wields his understated power will be key for the United States as it undertakes a new strategy for dealing with Tehran.

[...] By bringing in a new generation of politicians and gradually marginalizing the veteran Islamic Republic officials who were not willing to work for him, Khamenei concentrated power under his authority. He became head of all three branches of the government and the state media, as well as the commander-in-chief of all armed forces, including the police, the army, and the IRGC. In the process, he has transformed the clerical establishment from a traditional religious institution into an ideological apparatus and government proxy. As leader, he also controls the country’s most lucrative institutions, such as the Imam Reza Shrine and the Oppressed Foundation. He has used the funds they generate to advance a political agenda both inside Iran and abroad, building dozens of centers, foundations, and Islamic banks with political, cultural, social, and economic missions.

Iran will not change. The only difference, if Mousavi wins, is that he will be more politic in what he says to the world, while advancing the same goals as his predecessor. He has criticized Ahmadinejad’s Holocaust denial not because it’s wrong, but because it brings bad publicity for Iran. He has stated that he will not stop Iran’s nuclear program, either. He has criticized Ahmadinejad’s economic policies, but so what? That doesn’t affect Iran’s attitudes towards Israel (which will remain unchanged if Mousavi is elected).

I want Ahmadinejad to pull out this election. Because if he loses, the world will give Mousavi ovations and flowers, all the while ignoring that he will be doing exactly what his predecessor was doing—only with more outward finesse.

The media have already accepted this narrative:

The United States said in April it would join five powers — Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain — in nuclear talks with Iran. Ahmadinejad last week ruled out any such discussions and rejected a Western proposal for Iran to freeze expansion of its nuclear work in return for a freeze on any new sanctions.

In contrast, moderate candidate Mirhossein Mousavi said if he wins, Iran would pursue talks with big powers to assure them its nuclear activity was peaceful, although the work would go on. Iran says it aims to generate electricity, not make bombs.

So yes, I hope Ahmadinejad wins. Better the open enemy than the secret one.