The idea of a 48-hour cease-fire emerged from a conversation between Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France and Defense Minister Ehud Barak of Israel. It was supposed to establish at least a temporary pause in the fighting that would allow humanitarian relief to be delivered to the besieged coastal strip. Aides to Mr. Barak said he was interested in exploring it with Prime Minister Olmert and the rest of the cabinet at a security meeting on Wednesday.

“The leading option right now is still a ground invasion, but the target of this operation is an improved cease-fire, and if that can come without the invasion, fine,” a close aide to Mr. Barak said Tuesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he is not Mr. Barak’s authorized spokesman. “But, of course, Hamas has to agree, and there has to be a mechanism to make it work.”

In Paris, Mr. Kouchner met with his European Union colleagues Tuesday over the Gaza crisis and called publicly for a permanent cease-fire. A similar call came from the so-called quartet of powers focused on the region — the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia.

The devil, of course, is in the details. The “mechanism” the anonymous source talks about will be nearly impossible to implement. While the talk of a “permanent cease-fire” sounds noble, the reality Elder of Ziyon observes is somewhat different.

Rocket attacks occurred before, during and after disengagement; before, during and after Hamas elections; before, during and after the Hamas/Fatah unity government; through the Hamas coup, through the worldwide blockade of Gaza, through the 2007 “truce” and through the 2008 “truce.” They happened while Gazans were happily employed at the Erez Industrial Park in Gaza as well as when it was shut down, they happened while Jews lived in Gush Katif and when they didn’t, when the crossings were opened and when they were shut.

In recent there have been a number of truces between Israel and Hamas and rocket fire continue throughout them all. So should Israel agree to a ceasefire, it would essentially be tying its own hands from responding.

This is something even the State Department acknowledges according the Times:

“That is different from the cease-fire that existed in the last six months,” said the spokesman, Gordon Duguid, noting that Hamas had routinely violated the previous agreement by firing rockets into southern Israel.

Of course, given that Israel has stated that its purpose is to eliminate the possibility of even more rockets from Gaza, a “cease-fire” – that magic concept – would effectively be a defeat for Israel.

There are two other interesting observations in the Times article:

In Gaza, Hamas militants issued a taped statement vowing revenge for those killed in the Israeli air raids since Saturday and warning that a ground invasion would prove painful for Israel. Palestinian officials say that more than 370 people have been killed, among them, the United Nations says, at least 62 women and children and an unknown number of civilian men. Two sisters, ages 4 and 11, were killed in a strike in the north as concern was growing around the world that the assault was taking a terrible toll on civilians.

Of course the statement’s taped. There’s no way they’re doing anything that might give away their positions.

And then there’s this:

His 13-year-old son, Yousef, was with him. When asked his view of the situation, Yousef took an unusual stand for someone in Gaza, where Israel is being cursed by most everyone. “I blame Hamas. It doesn’t want to recognize Israel. If they did so there could be peace,” he said. “Egypt made a peace treaty with Israel, and nothing is happening to them.”

Remember this isn’t the only case of a child saying this.

[Interviewer] “How many were you?”

[Girl] “Seven.In the other room were my mother, my father, my yonger brother and another sister, who is 13 days old. I say, Hamas is the cause, in the first place, of all wars.”

PMW – the source of the interview – noted in a followup e-mail that the girl’s statement was likely a reflection of the views adults around her hold.

While two data points hardly represent a trend, they are remarkable. The NYT reported yesterday (h/t BotWT):

In the fourth-floor orthopedic section, a woman in her late 20s asked a militant to let her see Saleh Hajoj, her 32-year-old husband. She was turned away and left the hospital. Fifteen minutes later, Mr. Hajoj was carried out by young men pretending to transfer him to another ward. As he lay on the stretcher, he was shot in the left side of the head.

Mr. Hajoj, like five others killed at the hospital this way in 24 hours, was accused of collaboration with Israel. He had been in the central prison awaiting trial by Hamas judges; when Israel destroyed the prison on Sunday he and the others were transferred to the hospital. But their trials were short-circuited.

In a land of summary executions, taking a stand against the ruling authority can be rather dangerous. I’m surprised that anyone would express an opinion that didn’t blame Israel.

Israeli author David Grossman, on the Times’ op-ed page though argues that Israel should fight fire with a cease-fire.

NOW, after the heavy blow that Israel has dealt to the Gaza Strip, we would do best to halt, turn to the leaders of Hamas and tell them: Until last Saturday, we restrained ourselves in responding to the thousands of Qassam rockets fired at us. Now you know how severe the retaliation can be. So as not to add to the death and destruction that has already taken place, we intend, unilaterally and absolutely, to hold our fire for the next 48 hours.

Even if you continue to fire on Israel, we will not respond by resuming combat. We will grit our teeth, just as we did in the days and months before our attack. We will not be drawn into using force.

Furthermore, we hereby invite all concerned countries, nearby and distant, to mediate between us and you, in order to reinstate the cease-fire that ended earlier this month. If you also cease hostilities, we will not renew them. If you continue to shoot while we hold ourselves back, we will respond accordingly when the 48 hours end. But even then we will leave the door open to negotiations to re-establish the truce, and even seek a broader agreement.

This should be Israel’s next move. Is it possible, or are we already captives of the all-too-familiar ritual of war?

Huh? So if Israel holds it fire for 48 hours unconditionally, that will accomplish what? It will free Israel from the “all-too-familiar ritual of war?”

Will the 250,000 people living within range of Hamas missiles object to being fair game. But at what point would Grossman say that it’s proper for Israel to defend its citizens? He concludes with this:

And one more inevitable thought. Had we taken this approach in July of 2006, after Hezbollah kidnapped two of our soldiers — had we held our fire then, after our initial retaliatory strike in Lebanon and declared that we were waiting for a day or two to calm the situation and give mediation a chance — we would likely be in a better position today. That, too, is a lesson that Israel’s government should have learned from that war. In fact, it is the most important lesson we must learn.

Perhaps, I should not fault Grossman for this thought, as his son was killed defending Israel in 2006. But the problem wasn’t that Israel fought Hezbollah, it was that Israel didn’t finish the job.

UPDATE: A question about the proliferation of Grossman’s op-ed.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

The first is that they ending the ceasefire while George W. Bush is president. Certainly Israel feels freer to hit back at Hamas now than after Barrack Obama is inaugurated simply because the new administration would want to avoid a crisis before it consolidates its plans and team. Also, the United States is likely to prefer quiet as it begins withdrawing from Iraq.

Second, the ceasefire is being suspended on the eve of a major Palestinian crisis as Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas announces a self-extension of his term in office. One might think Hamas would prefer to keep the Israel front Israel quiet for a while to focus on battling Fatah and the PA.

Finally, there’s the Israeli election campaign. While this doesn’t make large-scale Israeli retaliation inevitable, such a move would make the current government more popular with the electorate.

Of course mitigating against those is:

[Hamas] knows suffering can be blamed on Israel. Western pragmatists reason: obviously the Palestinians must prefer peace, prosperity, and statehood. Rejectionism must then be due to desperation and the lack of a good offer or faith in the West. In fact, though, the situation is not due to our mistakes but to their deliberate choices.

Thus, Hamas can well conclude that the best way to put pressure on Israel and–in its own mind at least–gain Western help–is to be more radical, not more moderate.

To cite one example, what is considered America’s leading newspaper recently reported that both sides violate the ceasefire: Hamas fires rockets at Israel; Israel retaliates by closing the border. By this definition, the fact that Hamas and its allies fire rockets at Israeli civilians doesn’t allow any Israeli response, military or otherwise. This is the kind of thinking Hamas seeks to promote.

and:

In addition, macho militancy in the Middle East does bring popularity, both domestic and international. The last quarter-century has also shown that Western sympathy can be manipulated by increasing violence and blocking solutions to the conflict in a way that will be blamed on Israel.

May I suggest another reason why Hamas ceased the pretense of a ceasefire? Because it achieved what it set out to. Judeopundit noticed in a Al-Jazeera report:

Palestinian group Hamas has declared that the six-month ceasefire between Israel and the Gaza Strip is over.

The ceasefire officially ended at daybreak in Gaza on Friday and came after armed Palestinian groups admitted that they had been using the truce to train and better arm themselves.

And indeed, This Ongoing War linked to an earlier post of mine that cited a report after one month of the “ceasefire.”

The cessation of the IDF’s operational activity in the Gaza Strip, as stipulated in the lull arrangement, is being used by Hamas and other terrorist organizations to advance their military buildup and increase their readiness for a likely scenario of a future confrontation with the IDF. Since the beginning of the lull, weapons and ammunition have been smuggled into the Gaza Strip on a similar scale to the pre-lull times, despite an improvement in the Egyptian activity against the smugglers. Furthermore, Hamas has significantly accelerated its training activity and its military buildup, publicly announcing it on Palestinian and Arab media.

This is why it’s frustrating when a newspaper, like the New York Times – and much of the MSM – characterize the ceasefire strictly in terms of whether either side is firing. If Hamas is building a tunnel to attack Israel and Israel attacks, well Israel broke the ceasefire. More generally, Barry Rubin describes it like this:

To cite one example, what is considered America’s leading newspaper recently reported that both sides violate the ceasefire: Hamas fires rockets at Israel; Israel retaliates by closing the border. By this definition, the fact that Hamas and its allies fire rockets at Israeli civilians doesn’t allow any Israeli response, military or otherwise. This is the kind of thinking Hamas seeks to promote.

Israel is hamstrung if it plays by these rules and the media portrays this as being even-handed. Does it make a difference how Hamas utilized the ceasefire? It certainly makes a good talking point, but the truth doesn’t seem to have sunk in.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

Their job, the Hamas officials said, was to stop the rocket attacks on Israel not only from its own armed groups, but also from others based in Gaza, including Islamic Jihad and Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades.

It took some days, but they were largely successful. Hamas imposed its will and even imprisoned some of those who were firing rockets. Israeli and United Nations figures show that while more than 300 rockets were fired into Israel in May, 10 to 20 were fired in July, depending on who was counting and whether mortar rounds were included. In August, 10 to 30 were fired, and in September, 5 to 10.

But the goods shipments, while up some 25 to 30 percent and including a mix of more items, never began to approach what Hamas thought it was going to get: a return to the 500 to 600 truckloads delivered daily before the closing, including appliances, construction materials and other goods essential for life beyond mere survival. Instead, the number of trucks increased to around 90 from around 70.

Israeli officials acknowledged that transferring previously banned goods had been the plan, but said that there was no specific date for the increase and that it was to happen in steps. But the rockets never fully stopped.

Or the explanation could be a lot simpler.

Hamas considers Israel an illegitimate state and is doctrinally committed to its destruction, while Israel views Hamas as a terrorist group that must be dismantled.

The first part is certainly true. The second part isn’t quite right. Hamas is a terrorist organization by definition, not due to some quirky Israeli “view.” Terrorist organizations that are committed to one’s destruction are not reliable good faith partners for anything. And yet:

Yet each needs the other to hold its fire. That is why negotiations over another truce have started, again through Egypt.

When does trusting Hamas become a farce?

Maybe Israel doesn’t need another truce.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.

Hamas Threatens to End Truce Unless Israel Eases Restrictions
Bloomberg – Wed Dec 17, 2:06 am EST
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Hamas is threatening to end a six- month cease-fire if Israel doesn’t let more food, fuel and other goods into the Gaza Strip, a leader of the militant Islamic group said.

Hamas hinting it might extend truce with Israel
San Diego Union-Tribune – Mon Dec 15, 6:03 am EST
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip – Hamas leaders in Gaza yesterday left open the possibility of renewing a tenuous truce with Israel that is scheduled to expire Friday, putting themselves at odds with a statement by the exiled political leader of the group in Damascus, Syria.

Hamas leaders say Israel wrecking Gaza truce
Reuters via Yahoo! News – Sun Dec 14, 3:02 pm EST
Hamas leaders warned Israel on Sunday that it was wrecking a truce in the Gaza Strip, but left open the possibility of a last-minute deal to extend the six-month ceasefire.

Israel, Hamas up rhetoric as truce nears expiry
AFP via Yahoo! News – Mon Dec 15, 11:45 am EST
Israel and Hamas ratcheted up the rhetoric on Monday ahead of the expiry of a six-month Gaza truce which the Islamist rulers of the Palestinian enclave say they are unlikely to renew.

Hamas leader warns Israel of end of Gaza truce
Reuters via Yahoo! News – Sun Dec 14, 11:34 am EST
Hamas’s leader in exile was quoted as saying Sunday it would not renew a six-month-old truce with Israel in Gaza when it expires this week, raising the prospect of increased cross-border fighting.

Hamas will let Israel truce expire
The Washington Times – Mon Dec 15, 6:11 am EST
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip | The Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which controls Gaza, said Sunday that a troubled Cairo-brokered truce with Israel will not be renewed when it runs out later this week.

Hamas says will not renew truce with Israel
Reuters via Yahoo! News – Sun Dec 14, 9:00 am EST
The Palestinian group Hamas will not renew a truce with Israel in the Gaza Strip that expires later this month, said a statement issued by the group in the Syrian capital on Sunday.

Hamas plays hardball with Israeli ceasefire
WorldNet Daily – Sun Dec 14, 5:48 pm EST
JAFFA, Israel – Hamas is willing to renew an expiring six-month “truce” with Israel but is delaying in hopes of extracting more concessions from the Jewish state, according to sources close to Hamas in the Gaza Strip speaking to WND.

Hamas may extend its truce with Israel
Seattle Times – Mon Dec 15, 5:21 am EST
Hamas leaders in Gaza on Sunday left open the possibility of renewing a tenuous truce with Israel that is due to expire Friday, putting themselves at odds with a statement by the exiled political leader of the group in Damascus, Syria.

Hamas: Truce with Israel will not be renewed
KRON 4 Bay Area – Sun Dec 14, 1:36 pm EST
CAIRO, Egypt (AP) – The exiled leader of the militant Palestinian group Hamas says a truce with Israel in the Gaza Strip will not be renewed once it expires.

Hamas leaders say will not extend Gaza truce
Reuters via Yahoo! News – Mon Dec 15, 3:24 am EST

I guess the consensus is … who knows?

The Spine though notices something:

11 Kassams hit Negev, 48 hours before truce set to end

and asks, What’s wrong with this headline?

It seems that continued rocket fire into Israel doesn’t constitute a breach of the ceasefire. Apparently “ceasefire” has taken on an especially elastic meaning.

UPDATE: For just how elastic that meaning is please see Elder of Ziyon who has quantified it and concluded:

The cause and effect is clear and consistent: when rockets aren’t being shot, Gazans get aid. It is as simple as that, and these facts are documented. Those “peace activists” who pretend to care about Gazans and yet stay silent about the rockets care neither about Gazan lives nor about peace.

Meryl has more and adds this observation on the reporting:

Note how the AP compares shortages of, say, cooking oil with rockets landing in Sderot shopping center parking lots. Like they’re interchangeable.

Batya adds:

There is only one way to stop terrorists, and there’s only once way to have true peace, not the rhinestone variety. We must totally and completely and unembarrassedly defeat our enemies without apologizing, without trying to make them happy, without compensating them for their losses.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.