Experience not politics

I think that Bradley Burston – though he puts it a lot differently than I would – is making the same point I have. Or as his interviewee says (via memeorandum):

“In other words,” Alkalai concludes, “the majority vote was cast for a leadership – the right wing – that the public thinks can end the relationship with the most assets for Israelis and preferably no alimony at all for the spouse.”

Or as David Bernstein puts it:

The Israeli Left has lost the confidence of Israelis by persuading them to put their faith in a “peace process” premised on the assumption that the dispute with the Palestinians was primarily about land, and that if Israel was willing to withdraw from land appropriated in 1967, peace would ensue. That turned out to be overly simplistic, and perhaps very naive. I recall reading several left-wing Ha’aretz columnists who claimed during the Second Intifada that the underlying problem was that the Palestinians didn’t believe Israel would ever withdraw from any of the “occupied territories.” Israel subsequently did withdraw, from Gaza and part of Samaria, but this led to the election of Hamas in Gaza, not to the triumph of Palestinian doves. The left still clings to its paradigm, however. The Israeli right, meanwhile, has quickly shifted to what it is at least able to portray as a “realist” approach to the Palestinians. As is usual in politics, the side that has been better able to react to events on the ground, rather than sticking to ideological presuppositions, has won–which doesn’t, of course, make it right.

Barry Rubin puts it like this:

Most Israelis believe that the Palestinians don’t want to make a comprehensive peace with Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state. Hamas doesn’t want it; the Palestinian Authority (PA) is both unwilling and unable to do it. Israel faces a hostile Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah, and various Islamist movements which all want to destroy it. In addition, it cannot depend on strong Western or international support in defending itself.

Therefore, it is not a moment for Israel to make big concessions or take big risks. Peace is not at hand. The priority—even while continuing negotiations and trying to help the PA to survive—is defense.

That’s what the people who voted for Labor or Likud or Lieberman, Kadima or Shas or National Union or Jewish Home or United Torah Judaism believed. More than 85 percent of Israelis voted for parties that hold that basic conception, while that concept itself is the product of a very serious assessment of very real experience. And that—whatever differences they have—is beyond any definition of “left” or “right.”

Israel has moved to the Left over the past 20 years. When commentators refer to right wing and left wing, they are describing much changed positions over that time. But as Prof Rubin concludes, there has been no reciprocal movement on the other side:

There is a Palestinian partner for the above four issues, but not for a comprehensive solution ending the conflict forever in exchange for a Palestinian state living in peace alongside Israel. As we learned in the 1990s with the peace process and more recently with disengagement, Israel’s actions—no matter how conciliatory and concessionary—cannot make peace when the other side is unwilling and unable to do so. It’s time for the rest of the world to learn this fact.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.