The talk about a possible ceasefire (via memeorandum) between Israel and Hamas before dealing Hamas a decisive blow is disappointing, especially since it doesn’t seem to include the freedom of Gilad Shalit.
Hamas does not have the upper hand, but Israel might still letting it declare victory.
Still given the Egyptian attitude towards Hamas. It’s encouraging to read these attitudes from Fatah about Sayyam.
The Palpress News Agency, which is run by followers of former Fatah security chief Muhammad Dahlan, published dozens of talkbacks in which readers openly rejoiced.
The agency quoted “reliable sources” in the Gaza Strip as saying that one of Siam’s bodyguards had tipped the Israelis about his whereabouts. The sources said that Hamas militiamen executed the bodyguard shortly after the assassination.
Some of the talkbacks read as follows:
Falastinyah: He [Siam] was a swine. To hell with him! We hope that the remaining pigs would follow him.
Lovers of [slain Fatah operative] Samih Madhoun: Justice has finally been done!
Muhammad: He got what he deserved. May Allah punish him for his deeds.
Ahmed: We will never forgive him for his gruesome crimes against Fatah. Apparently Allah turned him into a martyr to absolve him of his many sins.
Victims of Said Siam: We won’t forget the 700 Fatah people who were killed by Siam.
And especially this last one:
Zeer55: We love you, Ehud Barak. This is really a great hit, Mr. Barak, and we fully support you. Please make us happy by going after the rest of them.
Hate Israel as they do, it appears that Egypt and Fatah may hate Hamas more. It will be awfully hollow for Haniyeh or Zahar to declare victory when they don’t have the rhetorical support of their neighbors.
Not even Hamas’s leadership is certain of victory (h/t Barry Rubin):
Meanwhile it seems that at least the Hamas leadership in Gaza has began to fathom the seriousness of its position. Two Hamas leaders in the Strip, Razi Hamad and Ahmed Yusuf, accused the group’s leadership in Damascus of “bringing a terrible disaster on Gaza.”
The two are considered members of the pragmatic wing of the party, and charged the Damascus-based leadership with making a terrible mistake in ordering Hamas to foil the extension of the cease-fire agreement with Israel in December.
However, in Damascus it is not clear that the message has been received. Ramadan Shalah, head of the Islamic Jihad, told Al Jazeera that the Palestinians will continue their resistance in Gaza and the city will not surrender because “victory is imminent.”
If nothing else, if Hamas doesn’t have a unified narrative of the war, they’re at least uncertain. I guess there won’t be any broadcasts of victory from an undisclosed location a la Nasrallah in 2006.
Still read Noah Pollak for why declaring ceasefire at this time is problematic.
Color me skeptical. Just as war creates its own momentum, so do cease-fires. It’s going to take tremendous political willpower for Israel to pause Cast Lead and then resume it again. If Hamas’ leaders have any capacity for strategic thinking, they will halt their attacks for a week and ensure an Israeli withdrawal — and then hold victory parades, resume firing rockets, and test whether Israel is prepared to commence Cast Lead II a week after its first iteration was dismantled. In this way, the Israeli rout of Hamas the world witnessed over the past three weeks can be quickly transformed into an exemplar of jihadist bravery and steadfastness. The humiliation of Israel will be complete.
and Mere Rhetoric
I’m going to close this post. In the next few hours Hamas will try to escalate their fire – killing some civilians while they can. After 2am you’ll probably see rocket fire slow down to a trickle: they’ll try to walk a fine line between terrorizing Israeli civilians to show they still can and keeping their fire sufficiently limited to prevent an Israeli counterattack.
Israel has an advantage now and even some tacit support in the Arab world. Yet it apparently won’t press that advantage. And I don’t think that Israel will have any sympathy for re-starting Cast Lead regardless of the provocations and threats.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
Okay, fine, Israel wants a ceasefire? Let them have it, but they ought to respond to every single rocket attack, in a disproportionate fashion, and every hamasshole that claims victory should be targeted immediately.