Here’s where I make a fool of myself and try my hand at analysis. Because I’m not in any way, shape, or form a military expert. But I completely disagree with this opinion piece in Ha’aretz, which says that Israel isn’t launching the ground war because they’re unwilling to do what it takes to end Hamas’ terror.
The blinking did not begin on Tuesday with Barak’s announcement that Israel was considering a “humanitarian” 48-hour cease-fire. It began when the first air strikes were not immediately accompanied by a ground operation. Israel showed, as in Lebanon, that it does not want to reach a strategic resolution and does not have the will, determination or self-confidence to lead a military operation beyond reprisal and punitive action.
The weather is an important part of warfare. That, any idiot should know. It’s extremely important to have air cover when launching a military operation. One of Israel’s strengths is in its “eye in the sky” network of drones. Those are what is helping the IDF take out Hamas terrorists loading Grad rockets onto a truck. Those are what will defend Israel’s soldiers from Hamas suicide bombers driving trucks laden with explosives into the troops.
A clear sky enables the Apache helicopters to support the ground offensive. A clear sky will lower Israeli casualties and raise the Hamas death toll.
I think rumors of the 48-hour truce arose because it would have been a bad idea diplomatically to laugh at French President Nicolas Sarkozy for raising the possibility. The 48-hour truce idea was being “considered” because it would have given Israel a respite while it was raining and overcast—a time when there wasn’t going to be a ground push anyway. Why do you think the IDF has been cooling its heels on the Gaza border these last few days? It’s not because they like sleeping in the mud.
This operation is being run by a real general this time, one with Special Forces experience. Ehud Barak is one of the architects of the Entebbe raid. When the ground forces do move in, I’m pretty sure he has a plan to deal with the underground explosive traps that Hamas has laid ready for the tanks. Does anyone out there really think that the tanks are going to move in on the access road where Hamas has been laying mines for the past week?
I have said many times that Hamas is fighting the last war, and Israel is fighting the next one. We’ve seen the first stage, the aerial bombing that has taken out so much of Hamas’ rocket capability. Next we’re going to see what Hamas is waiting for—a ground incursion. But I don’t think that Hamas is going to get what they’re expecting.
And I don’t think the IDF is going to lose.