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	<title>Comments on: Attention, finance geeks</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584</link>
	<description>Cutting straight to the point</description>
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		<title>By: Mark James</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28139</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Aug 2007 06:21:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28139</guid>
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excerpt:
Lacker also predicted &quot;the drag from housing will continue for some time.&quot; Economists agree the glut of unsold properties is unlikely to ease anytime soon, and will put pressure on prices to fall further. Prospective homebuyers are waiting for better bargains, while subprime defaults and rising foreclosures raise the risk that more houses will get thrown back on the market.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1188197173584&#038;pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull" rel="nofollow">http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1188197173584&#038;pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull</a><br />
excerpt:<br />
Lacker also predicted &#8220;the drag from housing will continue for some time.&#8221; Economists agree the glut of unsold properties is unlikely to ease anytime soon, and will put pressure on prices to fall further. Prospective homebuyers are waiting for better bargains, while subprime defaults and rising foreclosures raise the risk that more houses will get thrown back on the market.</p>
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		<title>By: Jon Ihle</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28119</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon Ihle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Aug 2007 11:45:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28119</guid>
		<description>Yes, it will be harder to get a mortgage because 1) lenders are going to over-react for a little while and 2) it&#039;s going to be harder for lenders to raise money to keep lending volumes up until it gets easy to sell the debt out the back end on the securitization markets. The days of lending from the capital base are over, so as long as liquidity on the capital markets is a problem, lending criteria are going to be tight.
Someone told you to only get a fixed mortgage - and at least a 15-year fix at that! I think that&#039;s bad advice. We&#039;re near the top of a tightening cycle, so fixing now means you&#039;ll probably pay a higher rate than the average variable over the life of the loan. Interest rates aren&#039;t like they used to be. I simply can&#039;t foresee any circumstances that will push the base rate higher than 7% - barring an economic catastrophe - and most likely there&#039;s going to be a series of cuts sometime in the next few years.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, it will be harder to get a mortgage because 1) lenders are going to over-react for a little while and 2) it&#8217;s going to be harder for lenders to raise money to keep lending volumes up until it gets easy to sell the debt out the back end on the securitization markets. The days of lending from the capital base are over, so as long as liquidity on the capital markets is a problem, lending criteria are going to be tight.</p>
<p>Someone told you to only get a fixed mortgage &#8211; and at least a 15-year fix at that! I think that&#8217;s bad advice. We&#8217;re near the top of a tightening cycle, so fixing now means you&#8217;ll probably pay a higher rate than the average variable over the life of the loan. Interest rates aren&#8217;t like they used to be. I simply can&#8217;t foresee any circumstances that will push the base rate higher than 7% &#8211; barring an economic catastrophe &#8211; and most likely there&#8217;s going to be a series of cuts sometime in the next few years.</p>
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		<title>By: David Charlap</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28082</link>
		<dc:creator>David Charlap</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 16:29:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28082</guid>
		<description>First of all, there will always be banks willing to lend, if you qualify.  Qualification is going to be a function of your credit rating, your annual income, any other outstanding debts (whether or not they&#039;re paid on-time), and the size of the mortgage (both in absolute terms and relative to the value of the house.)
In general, if your credit history is good and your income is high enough to make the payments, you should be able to get a mortgage.  The current downturn make force you into a higher interest rate than last year, but it shouldn&#039;t be much worse than that.  In a few years, if rates go down, you can always refinance at that point.
Some advice:
1: Always go to a bank, not a mortgage company.  And preferably a bank with a good reputation.  My parents got a loan from a mortgage company at one point and it was a disaster.  The mortgage was sold from company-to-company every six months, making a total mess with payment processing, escrow processing, taxes, etc.  The confusion created some colossal screwups (like using our escrow to pay someone else&#039;s property tax.)  When I bought my house, I got the mortgage from Chase Manhattan and there has never been a problem.
2: Fixed-rate mortgages only.  Never use an ARM unless you plan on dumping the house in a year or two.  The rates will always end up adjusting to something unbearably painful - which is part of the reason for the current crisis.  I would recommend a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.  Some people will recommend 15-year, if you can afford it, but I don&#039;t.
3: If you can scrounge together enough money for a 20% down payment, that&#039;s best.  Banks will love you if you can do that.  If you can&#039;t put down 20%, you&#039;ll probably be required to buy Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) to cover the bank&#039;s loss if you default and they can&#039;t sell the house for the amount outstanding on the loan.
4: In some cases, if your credit is especially good, the banks might be willing to get creative to avoid PMI.  When I got my house, they arranged an 80-10-10 deal, where I got a mortgage for 80%, a simultaneous home equity loan for 10%, and a 10% down payment.  The equity-loan portion had a much higher interest rate (8-3/8% vs 6-3/8% on the first mortgage), but I was able to pay it off in four years, rather than over it&#039;s 15-year schedule, so the overall impact wasn&#039;t that bad.
5: When shopping for a house, it is always a good idea to get a pre-approved loan.  Pre-approval (&lt;i&gt;not pre-qualified!&lt;/i&gt;) means the bank goes through all their financial analysis and doesn&#039;t just take a quick look at your credit record.  If you go to a seller with a pre-approval, it is equivalent to a cash-sale, since they don&#039;t have to worry about your ability to get a loan.  This gives you a huge advantage over other buyers.  (I did this when I bought my house, and beat out three other people who offered more money but were not pre-approved.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First of all, there will always be banks willing to lend, if you qualify.  Qualification is going to be a function of your credit rating, your annual income, any other outstanding debts (whether or not they&#8217;re paid on-time), and the size of the mortgage (both in absolute terms and relative to the value of the house.)</p>
<p>In general, if your credit history is good and your income is high enough to make the payments, you should be able to get a mortgage.  The current downturn make force you into a higher interest rate than last year, but it shouldn&#8217;t be much worse than that.  In a few years, if rates go down, you can always refinance at that point.</p>
<p>Some advice:</p>
<p>1: Always go to a bank, not a mortgage company.  And preferably a bank with a good reputation.  My parents got a loan from a mortgage company at one point and it was a disaster.  The mortgage was sold from company-to-company every six months, making a total mess with payment processing, escrow processing, taxes, etc.  The confusion created some colossal screwups (like using our escrow to pay someone else&#8217;s property tax.)  When I bought my house, I got the mortgage from Chase Manhattan and there has never been a problem.</p>
<p>2: Fixed-rate mortgages only.  Never use an ARM unless you plan on dumping the house in a year or two.  The rates will always end up adjusting to something unbearably painful &#8211; which is part of the reason for the current crisis.  I would recommend a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.  Some people will recommend 15-year, if you can afford it, but I don&#8217;t.</p>
<p>3: If you can scrounge together enough money for a 20% down payment, that&#8217;s best.  Banks will love you if you can do that.  If you can&#8217;t put down 20%, you&#8217;ll probably be required to buy Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) to cover the bank&#8217;s loss if you default and they can&#8217;t sell the house for the amount outstanding on the loan.</p>
<p>4: In some cases, if your credit is especially good, the banks might be willing to get creative to avoid PMI.  When I got my house, they arranged an 80-10-10 deal, where I got a mortgage for 80%, a simultaneous home equity loan for 10%, and a 10% down payment.  The equity-loan portion had a much higher interest rate (8-3/8% vs 6-3/8% on the first mortgage), but I was able to pay it off in four years, rather than over it&#8217;s 15-year schedule, so the overall impact wasn&#8217;t that bad.</p>
<p>5: When shopping for a house, it is always a good idea to get a pre-approved loan.  Pre-approval (<i>not pre-qualified!</i>) means the bank goes through all their financial analysis and doesn&#8217;t just take a quick look at your credit record.  If you go to a seller with a pre-approval, it is equivalent to a cash-sale, since they don&#8217;t have to worry about your ability to get a loan.  This gives you a huge advantage over other buyers.  (I did this when I bought my house, and beat out three other people who offered more money but were not pre-approved.)</p>
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		<title>By: Sabba Hillel</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28081</link>
		<dc:creator>Sabba Hillel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 15:54:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28081</guid>
		<description>I should point out that you should make sure that you can &quot;prepay&quot; your mortgage.  That is, instead of paying the exact calculated amount every month, try to pay something over against the principal.  The reason is that the first payments are mainly interest and only towards the end do you start really paying down the principal.  For example, one extra payment at the beginning, subtracts much more than one payment at the end.
When I first started, I rounding up my payment to an even $100 figure (when I couldn&#039;t afford much more than the exact payment).  That reduced the time by a much larger amount than it seemed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I should point out that you should make sure that you can &#8220;prepay&#8221; your mortgage.  That is, instead of paying the exact calculated amount every month, try to pay something over against the principal.  The reason is that the first payments are mainly interest and only towards the end do you start really paying down the principal.  For example, one extra payment at the beginning, subtracts much more than one payment at the end.</p>
<p>When I first started, I rounding up my payment to an even $100 figure (when I couldn&#8217;t afford much more than the exact payment).  That reduced the time by a much larger amount than it seemed.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom Frank</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28077</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom Frank</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 13:52:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28077</guid>
		<description>Meryl;
A couple of other thoughts for you.  If your new employer happens to have a credit union, or relations with one, join it.
CU&#039;s are really good about mortgages to members, and if you&#039;ve been a member for 6 months or so, they&#039;ll know you as a financially stable person.  CU&#039;s also don&#039;t always sell their mortgages on the secondary market, which, while of little real consequence to the home owner, just feels nice.
When you do finally get the mortgage, if your finanical state permits, consider a 15 year conventional, paid bi-weekly (assuming your employer pays you bi-weekly, this is really easy to deal with).  That results in the note being paid off in roughly 12 years, which (if I&#039;ve read you correctly) should be just before the point where you&#039;ll be eligible for retirement.  Nice to have the house all paid for when you become eligible for social security/medicare/medicaid, even if you do keep working (I expect to, as long as I stay healthy).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Meryl;</p>
<p>A couple of other thoughts for you.  If your new employer happens to have a credit union, or relations with one, join it.</p>
<p>CU&#8217;s are really good about mortgages to members, and if you&#8217;ve been a member for 6 months or so, they&#8217;ll know you as a financially stable person.  CU&#8217;s also don&#8217;t always sell their mortgages on the secondary market, which, while of little real consequence to the home owner, just feels nice.</p>
<p>When you do finally get the mortgage, if your finanical state permits, consider a 15 year conventional, paid bi-weekly (assuming your employer pays you bi-weekly, this is really easy to deal with).  That results in the note being paid off in roughly 12 years, which (if I&#8217;ve read you correctly) should be just before the point where you&#8217;ll be eligible for retirement.  Nice to have the house all paid for when you become eligible for social security/medicare/medicaid, even if you do keep working (I expect to, as long as I stay healthy).</p>
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		<title>By: Meryl Yourish</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28075</link>
		<dc:creator>Meryl Yourish</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 13:47:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28075</guid>
		<description>Thanks, folks.
Matt, $417k is way out of my budget, so I fall within the magic number.
David, thanks. I&#039;ll go check out that blog.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks, folks.</p>
<p>Matt, $417k is way out of my budget, so I fall within the magic number. </p>
<p>David, thanks. I&#8217;ll go check out that blog.</p>
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		<title>By: david foster</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28074</link>
		<dc:creator>david foster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 12:47:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28074</guid>
		<description>A couple of people who *are* finance geeks...specically, mortgage finance geeks...have a blog &lt;a href=&quot;http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;. It&#039;s useful reading for anyone who really wants to understand the dynamics of the mortgage market in depth.
And they even have a relevant rock song of the week, every Saturday!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of people who *are* finance geeks&#8230;specically, mortgage finance geeks&#8230;have a blog <a href="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">here</a>. It&#8217;s useful reading for anyone who really wants to understand the dynamics of the mortgage market in depth.</p>
<p>And they even have a relevant rock song of the week, every Saturday!</p>
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		<title>By: Robert</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28073</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 12:47:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28073</guid>
		<description>Nature abhors a vacuum.  So do Markets.  Besides, this &quot;news&quot; is coming from the same people that brought you Y2K, Global Warming, and oh, yes, anti-Israel bias.
Robert</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nature abhors a vacuum.  So do Markets.  Besides, this &#8220;news&#8221; is coming from the same people that brought you Y2K, Global Warming, and oh, yes, anti-Israel bias.</p>
<p>Robert</p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28072</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 12:42:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28072</guid>
		<description>All the above sounds good in terms of the real estate market.
But when it comes to mortgages the magic number is 416,999. As long as you are under $417,000 you will fall into a more favorable group of loans, conforming vs. jumbo loans. Conforming loans are bundled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and sold as securities -- this means that they are much easier to get money for from the lender&#039;s end and usually have a slightly lower interest rate because of that.
All in all the comment about how lenders make money is correct and the competition should keep rates down, especially as borrowers get scarcer  due to those who got hurt most by the sub-prime mess leaving the mortgage market. I am not an expert on these things but I wouldn&#039;t panic just yet -- the Fed just pumped a lot of liquid money back into the market so las long as you have good credit you should be ok.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All the above sounds good in terms of the real estate market. </p>
<p>But when it comes to mortgages the magic number is 416,999. As long as you are under $417,000 you will fall into a more favorable group of loans, conforming vs. jumbo loans. Conforming loans are bundled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and sold as securities &#8212; this means that they are much easier to get money for from the lender&#8217;s end and usually have a slightly lower interest rate because of that. </p>
<p>All in all the comment about how lenders make money is correct and the competition should keep rates down, especially as borrowers get scarcer  due to those who got hurt most by the sub-prime mess leaving the mortgage market. I am not an expert on these things but I wouldn&#8217;t panic just yet &#8212; the Fed just pumped a lot of liquid money back into the market so las long as you have good credit you should be ok.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark James</title>
		<link>http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584/comment-page-1#comment-28071</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Aug 2007 06:07:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.yourish.com/2007/08/22/3584#comment-28071</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m not a finance geek, but I can tell you that between now and 2009 is a good time to buy. Why? Buyer&#039;s Market. That&#039;s why. The price of houses are dropping faster than that tech stock you bought rigth before the Tech Bubble Burst in 2000. I&#039;d wait long enough for their to be a real meltdown in housing prices, and then buy low. Drive a hard bargain, because there are loads of foreclosed houses that banks want to get rid of. It&#039;s going to get worse before it gets better.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not a finance geek, but I can tell you that between now and 2009 is a good time to buy. Why? Buyer&#8217;s Market. That&#8217;s why. The price of houses are dropping faster than that tech stock you bought rigth before the Tech Bubble Burst in 2000. I&#8217;d wait long enough for their to be a real meltdown in housing prices, and then buy low. Drive a hard bargain, because there are loads of foreclosed houses that banks want to get rid of. It&#8217;s going to get worse before it gets better.</p>
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