Michael Totten is subbing for Instapundit these days, and spreading his panic over Lebanon on that site. He pointed to three articles that say Israel is losing the war: Ralph Peters, Brett Stephens (former editor of the Jerusalem Post), and National Review. The fact that Totten now quotes Aziz Poonawalla, whom I have debated in the past (if that can be the word for it; I debated, he lied and pretended he didn’t) has made whatever credibility Totten had left go out my personal window.
The upshot of the three pieces mentioned (not including Aziz’s, I have absolutely zero respect for his opinion and won’t bother reading it) is that Israel is losing the war because she refuses to fully engage a large-scale ground invasion.
Let me once again state that I am in no way a military analyst. I simply read a lot and then give you my opinion (or not) on what I have read. Tonight, I found several articles in the Israeli press of great interest. First, this one on how long the IDF is prepared to stay in Lebanon.
While the IDF needs until the end of the week to deal Hizbullah a fatal blow, the military is prepared to remain in southern Lebanon for as long as it takes, even several months, until a multinational force takes control of the territory, IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky told The Jerusalem Post Tuesday.
“The IDF knows how to operate for as long as it takes even if it means remaining in the territory for a long time,” Kaplinsky told the Post during a visit to a military base along the northern border. The general said the IDF was currently working according to an operational plan in which IDF troops would push their way through southern Lebanon until the Litani River, some 40 kilometers from the border with Israel. But if necessary, he said, the IDF was prepared to travel even further northward.
Note that there are now five IDF divisions operating in Lebanon. The Israeli Knesset just okayed a call-up for three more divisions.
Also today, CNN was speculating on whether the IDF intends to catch Hezbullah in a pincer movement by sending ground forces north of the Litani river, and then having them drive south as other ground forces drive Hezbullah north. That’s what this JPost article says:
The IDF, a high-ranking source in the Northern Command said Tuesday, needed at least one more week to clear the area south of the Litani River of Hizbullah guerillas. The troops on the ground, he said, would not spend more than one-to-two days inside the Hizbullah strongholds and would operate at a faster pace than in the past.
“We will sweep through the area in an effort to exterminate the Hizbullah presence in the villages,” the officer said, expressing hope that the objective would be achieved before the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a cease-fire, expected to happen by the end of the week.
Signifying, however, that the IDF might also try to send troops north of the Litani, IAF fighter jets dropped tens of thousands of leaflets over villages north of the river on Tuesday calling on the residents to flee further north in anticipation of IDF operations in the area.
IRIS Blog points out another JPost article that says the IDF is forming a three-pronged attack that intends to wipe out Hezbullah.
There was also this: A successful insertion of special forces yesterday into a hospital deep inside Hezbullah territory to retrieve Hezbullah members, presumably for a prisoner swap:
After several hours of intense fighting in and around a hospital in the eastern Lebanon town of Baalbek, IDF commando forces on Wednesday morning took a number of Hizbullah officials captive.
Reportedly, an IAF helicopter dropped special forces soldiers at the hospital late Tuesday night. Heavy shooting with Hizbullah operatives on the premises ensued.
After inspecting the identification of everyone in the hospital, the IDF soldiers proceeded to arrest several people described in a CNN report as Hizbullah officials, who were later transported back into Israel. The officials names and positions in the organization were not revealed.
No IDF soldiers were wounded in the operation, an army spokesperson told The Jerusalem Post.
This report is in direct contradiction to Hezbullah reports (naturally) that said the IDF was pinned down and in trouble. But stop a moment and realize: The IDF inserted a group of commandos into enemy territory, who then captured Hezbullah members and brought them back alive—from deep inside the Bekaa Valley. There were no Israeli casualties.
The IDF is warning more villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate.
None of these stories seem to me to be reports of an army about to lose a war. None of them seems to me to be stories about Israel not working to eliminate Hezbullah. Eight divisions are a lot of soldiers to be sending into a ground war that people still think is a bunch of pinpoint invasions.
Once again, I am not a military analyst, and I don’t play one on TV—but I think that Olmert and the IDF are playing to win. The operation has barely begun. It takes time to plan an all-out assault, and the IDF knows they have to utterly defeat Hezbullah, or they will be in the exact same place a few years down the line—or worse, because Iran may have nukes by then.
This is a war that Israel cannot afford to lose. The naysayers, including Totten, are forgetting that. I will withhold judgment until the dust settles. In the meantime, I pray for the safety and victory of the IDF forces, and the swift and utter defeat of the terrorists in Hezbullah.
In the meantime, Chazak v’amatz: Be strong and be brave.

And feel free to take and distribute Sarah’s image.